Euro traders turn their gaze to French polls; Debates kick off today
• EUR tumbled on Fri., after a new French election poll showed Le Pen recovering ground.
• Today, we have the first televised debate between the top 5 candidates.
• A strong showing by Le Pen could prove EUR-negative.
• A more moderate performance by her, or a strong showing by Macron (her main rival) could support the common currency.
G20 drop commitment to resist protectionism
• G20 did not reiterate opposition to protectionism. No FX market impact, but highlights trade risks.
• It could affect the stance of RBNZ & RBA (make them more cautious).
• Speakers: BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
As for the rest of the week:
• Tue: UK CPI data for Feb. Both the headline and the core rates exp. to rise. GBP-positive.
• Wed: RBNZ policy decision. We exp. the Bank to stand pat, amid mixed data. Likely to maintain a dovish tone. If so, NZD-negative.
• Thu: UK retail sales for Feb. are exp. to rise after two consecutive declines. GBP-positive.
• Fri: Eurozone’s prel. manuf. & services PMIs for Mar. From US, durable goods orders for Feb. and from Canada, CPI data for Feb.
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