Fed minutes: June hike still in play
• The minutes of the April FOMC meeting showed that if data continue to improve, it would be appropriate to hike in June.
• The Committee felt that its communication in March was interpreted as more dovish than it expected.
• USD surged on the news, while stocks declined. Probability for June hike: 34%.
• This could keep the dollar supported in the near-term. USD may become more sensitive to incoming data than previously.

Today:
• UK: Retail sales for Apr. are exp. to rise, which could support GBP. However, we see some downside risks, perhaps for a smaller-than-expected rise.
• Eurozone: ECB minutes of it’s April policy meeting: We don’t expect any major market reaction in EUR.
• US: Initial jobless claims for week ended May 13th and Philly Fed business index for May.
• Speakers: Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and NY Fed President William Dudley.

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