EU-UK talks: Will there be a deal?
• EU summit ends today. The decision may determine UK’s future in the EU.
• Deal: GBP may strengthen and referendum is set for as early as June.
• No Deal: GBP could weaken as this may imply the UK gets less favorable terms in a future deal.

Today:
• Germany: PPI for Jan.
• Sweden: Unemployment rate for Jan. is exp. to rise. This could prove SEK-negative.
• UK: Retail sales for Jan. are exp. to rise, but GBP reaction could be muted.
• Eurozone: Prel. Consumer confidence for Feb. is exp. to fall.
• US: CPI for Jan. is exp. to accelerate sharply. This could support USD.
• Canada: CPI for Jan. is exp. to accelerate a bit. Also, retail sales for Dec.
• Speakers: ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.

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