IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 14/12/2016
December 14, 2016 8:58 am
FOMC: Locked, loaded, and ready to hike • The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today. Market pricing for a 25bps hike= 95%. • Since everyone expects a hike, market action may come from the “dot plot”, the updated economic forecasts and Yellen’s press conference. • For USD to rally notably, the Fed needs to deliver a more “hawkish” dot plot than Sep. (low probability scenario in our view). • May be hesitant to show more hikes before Trump outlines the details of his policies. • An unchanged “dot plot” may only lead to a limited market reaction. Maybe some profit-taking could lead to a minor pullback in USD.
Today: • UK: Jobs data for Oct. Both the unemployment rate and avg. weekly earnings rates are exp. to hold steady. These may show that “Brexit” hasn’t affected the labor market, and support GBP. • US: Retail sales for Nov. are exp. to slow. We see upside risks to the forecast, perhaps for a smaller-than-expected slowdown. If so, USD may gain a bit, but focus will be on the FOMC. • Speakers: Besides Fed Chair Yellen, we have BoE Governor Mark Carney.
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FOMC: Locked, loaded, and ready to hike
• The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today. Market pricing for a 25bps hike= 95%.
• Since everyone expects a hike, market action may come from the “dot plot”, the updated economic forecasts and Yellen’s press conference.
• For USD to rally notably, the Fed needs to deliver a more “hawkish” dot plot than Sep. (low probability scenario in our view).
• May be hesitant to show more hikes before Trump outlines the details of his policies.
• An unchanged “dot plot” may only lead to a limited market reaction. Maybe some profit-taking could lead to a minor pullback in USD.
Today:
• UK: Jobs data for Oct. Both the unemployment rate and avg. weekly earnings rates are exp. to hold steady. These may show that “Brexit” hasn’t affected the labor market, and support GBP.
• US: Retail sales for Nov. are exp. to slow. We see upside risks to the forecast, perhaps for a smaller-than-expected slowdown. If so, USD may gain a bit, but focus will be on the FOMC.
• Speakers: Besides Fed Chair Yellen, we have BoE Governor Mark Carney.
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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