Scotland announces the first step towards a second referendum
• Scotland’s first minister said that an Independence Referendum Bill will be published next week, a first step towards holding another vote.
• This could be yet another factor that adds downward pressure to GBP, once made official.
• Also, UK High Court decides next week if government can trigger Article 50 on its own, or if it needs to pass through Parliament.
• If the Court says the government can proceed alone, it could prove GBP-negative.
• If it needs Parliament’s approval, sterling could rally on speculation that lawmakers may vote against Article 50.

Today:
• Eurozone: Trade surplus for Aug. is exp. to narrow significantly.
• US: Retail sales for Sep. are exp. to have risen notably. This could support USD. Also, PPI for Sep. and U of M consumer sentiment for Oct.
• Speakers: Fed Chair Yellen and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. We don’t expect any game-changing remarks from Yellen, as we already heard from her recently at the Sep. FOMC. Nonetheless, any fresh comments on monetary policy could prove cause for volatility in USD.

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