IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/08/2016
August 4, 2016 8:43 amVideo
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BoE’s “Super Thursday”: Is it time for the big guns?
• Super Thursday! Alongside the rate decision and minutes, we also get the Inflation Report with updated economic forecasts and a press conference by Gov. Carney.
• The BoE is widely expected to take action. Market pricing suggests a 98% probability for a 25 bps rate cut.
• If the Bank only cuts rates by 25 bps, this could disappoint investors who expect more. This could cause a relief bounce in GBP.
• In order for GBP to weaken materially, the Bank has to deliver measures over and above what is currently expected.
• A fresh dose of QE and a clear easing bias could do the trick (in addition to a rate cut).
Today:
• US: Factory orders for Jun. and initial jobless claims for the week end. Jul. 29th.
• Speakers: Besides Governor Carney, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks.
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