IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/05/2017
May 3, 2017 9:10 am
FOMC: Will they pave the way for a June hike? • The FOMC is widely expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged today (18:00 GMT). • No forecasts or press conference, so market action may come from the language of the statement. • Economic data are mixed since the last meeting. Importantly, core inflation slowed down. • As such, we expect a neutral statement, with risks tilted towards a more cautious narrative. • Officials may prefer to keep their options open rather than locking themselves in for a June hike. • In case of cautious signals, USD could come under selling pressure.
NZD spikes higher on strong employment data • Overnight, New Zealand’s employment data for Q1 were quite strong. NZD surged on the news. • Following the solid inflation data for Q1 too, we think the RBNZ may sound less dovish next week. • NZD may remain somewhat supported until then.
As for the rest of today’s highlights: • UK: Construction PMI for April (08:30 GMT) is expected to have declined. We see upside risks to that forecast. In case of a positive surprise, GBP could come under renewed buying interest. • Eurozone: Flash preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP (09:00 GMT) is expected to have accelerated. • US: ADP employment report for April (12:15 GMT) and ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April (14:00 GMT). Both are expected to be solid. Even though USD could gain somewhat on these releases, it’s direction over the next two days will probably be decided by the FOMC.
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FOMC: Will they pave the way for a June hike?
• The FOMC is widely expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged today (18:00 GMT).
• No forecasts or press conference, so market action may come from the language of the statement.
• Economic data are mixed since the last meeting. Importantly, core inflation slowed down.
• As such, we expect a neutral statement, with risks tilted towards a more cautious narrative.
• Officials may prefer to keep their options open rather than locking themselves in for a June hike.
• In case of cautious signals, USD could come under selling pressure.
NZD spikes higher on strong employment data
• Overnight, New Zealand’s employment data for Q1 were quite strong. NZD surged on the news.
• Following the solid inflation data for Q1 too, we think the RBNZ may sound less dovish next week.
• NZD may remain somewhat supported until then.
As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• UK: Construction PMI for April (08:30 GMT) is expected to have declined. We see upside risks to that forecast. In case of a positive surprise, GBP could come under renewed buying interest.
• Eurozone: Flash preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP (09:00 GMT) is expected to have accelerated.
• US: ADP employment report for April (12:15 GMT) and ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April (14:00 GMT). Both are expected to be solid. Even though USD could gain somewhat on these releases, it’s direction over the next two days will probably be decided by the FOMC.
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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