IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/04/2017
April 3, 2017 9:10 am
RBA to remain on hold and maintain a neutral tone • The RBA will announce its decision during the Asian morning Tuesday. It’s expected to stand pat. • We share this view, and we expect the officials to maintain their overall neutral tone. • However, given the worse data lately, if there is a change in tone, it may towards a somewhat dovish narrative. • Thus, if any major reaction in AUD, it may be negative.
Japan’s Tankan survey signals improved business sentiment • The Tankan survey for Q1 showed improved business morale. All but one of the indices rose. • JPY strengthened recently, perhaps due to Japanese firms repatriating funds (fiscal year ending). • It would be interesting to see if this move is reversed in coming weeks, as the fiscal year is over.
Today: • UK: Manufacturing PMI for March (08:30 GMT) is expected unchanged. • US: ISM manufacturing PMI for March (14:00 GMT) is forecast to decline, but to remain at an elevated level. The reaction in USD may be negative, but not major.
As for the rest of the week: • Tue: RBA rate decision, as noted above. • Wed: UK services PMI for March. From the US, ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, both for March. Also, FOMC minutes of the March policy meeting. • Fri: US employment report for March. Also, Canada’s employment data for the same month.
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RBA to remain on hold and maintain a neutral tone
• The RBA will announce its decision during the Asian morning Tuesday. It’s expected to stand pat.
• We share this view, and we expect the officials to maintain their overall neutral tone.
• However, given the worse data lately, if there is a change in tone, it may towards a somewhat dovish narrative.
• Thus, if any major reaction in AUD, it may be negative.
Japan’s Tankan survey signals improved business sentiment
• The Tankan survey for Q1 showed improved business morale. All but one of the indices rose.
• JPY strengthened recently, perhaps due to Japanese firms repatriating funds (fiscal year ending).
• It would be interesting to see if this move is reversed in coming weeks, as the fiscal year is over.
Today:
• UK: Manufacturing PMI for March (08:30 GMT) is expected unchanged.
• US: ISM manufacturing PMI for March (14:00 GMT) is forecast to decline, but to remain at an elevated level. The reaction in USD may be negative, but not major.
As for the rest of the week:
• Tue: RBA rate decision, as noted above.
• Wed: UK services PMI for March. From the US, ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, both for March. Also, FOMC minutes of the March policy meeting.
• Fri: US employment report for March. Also, Canada’s employment data for the same month.
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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