IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 02/02/2017
February 2, 2017 10:04 amVideo
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BoE likely to remain neutral on “Super Thursday”
• This is one of the “big” meetings. Besides the rate decision, we get updated economic forecasts and a press conf. by Gov. Carney.
• Focus may be on inflation. Specifically, on the BoE’s tolerance to “look through” above-target CPI.
• We expect a neutral stance overall, and upgrades in the economic forecasts.
• In such a case, GBP may extend its recent gains.
Fed holds cards close to its chest; no new signals on policy
• FOMC remained on hold as expected. No new hints with regards to the next hike.
• Perhaps due to the absence of any concrete forward guidance, reaction in USD was negative.
• But we remain cautiously optimistic with regards to the dollar’s path in next few days.
• A strong NFP on Fri. (ADP was extremely strong!), and some further clarity on the gov. budget on Mon. could support USD.
As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• UK: Government will publish its “White Paper”, formally setting out its Brexit objectives. As its unlikely to contain any new info, it may not be a market mover. Also, construction PMI for Jan. is exp. to decline a bit. GBP-negative (but focus may be on BoE).
• US: Prel. labor costs for Q4. are exp. to have accelerated, USD-positive.
• Speakers: Besides BoE Gov. Carney, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure.
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