IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/05/2017
May 1, 2017 8:49 amVideo
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• RBA set to remain on hold; could shift to a more upbeat tone
• Rate decision during the Asian morning Tuesday. Expected to take no action.
• Economic data have improved since the latest gathering, where the Bank appeared worried.
• As such, the tone of the accompanying statement may be more upbeat. If so, AUD-positive.
• Eurozone’s inflation data lift the euro
• The bloc’s preliminary headline & core CPI rates for April both rose by more than anticipated.
• EUR surged, as this progress is in line with the story the ECB may appear more optimistic soon.
• The euro could stay supported, especially since French polls continue to show Macron being safely ahead of Le Pen.
• Today:
• US: Core PCE price index, personal income & spending data, all for March (12:30 GMT). Also, ISM manufacturing PMI for April (14:00 GMT). Most are expected to slow/decline, which could hurt USD.
• As for the rest of the week:
• Tue: RBA policy decision. Also, UK manufacturing PMI for April.
• Wed: FOMC rate decision. Widely expected to stand pat. We expect a more or less balanced tone, with risks tilted towards a more cautious narrative. In such case, USD-negative.
• Thu: Norges Bank policy meeting and UK services PMI for April.
• Fri: US employment data for April. The overall report looks solid. Could bring forth market expectations regarding the timing of the next hike and support USD.
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