If we look at the macro data, the dollar’s depreciation is somewhat surprising, as durable goods orders in the United States increased by 3.2%. While they were expected to grow by only 0.6%. We should pay attention to when the euro grew exactly. And it happened at the very opening of the European trading session. While the data on orders was published after the opening of the US trading session. So the question becomes even more interesting. And the whole point is that on Tuesday, an interview with Philip Lane was published on the European Central Bank’s website, who is not only the chief economist of the central bank but also a board member. During this interview, he explicitly said that on May 4th, a refinancing rate increase is simply inevitable. So, although the interview was published on Tuesday, it was closer to the evening. Almost at the end of the US trading session. So the euro’s growth from yesterday morning was just a reaction of investors to Lane’s statements. And the significance of his words is so great that it has simply overshadowed even the amazing data on durable goods orders in the United States.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
Today, the trend for the euro’s growth may continue, due to the first estimate of US GDP for the first quarter. After all, the pace of economic growth may noticeably slow down. Nonetheless, it is still growing, but a steady slow down in the economy increasingly convinces us of the inevitability of the economy sliding into recession. This will, of course, affect the dollar’s positions. It is extremely negative.
The EURUSD pair not only returned above the control level of 1.1000, but it also managed to locally update the high of the mid-term trend. This indicates the prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants, which in perspective may strengthen the euro’s positions.
During the sharp price change, on the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator crossed the middle line 50 upwards. This indicates an increase in the volume of long positions in the euro.
On the four-hour chart, the Alligator’s MAs completed the intertwining stage and has since then moved upwards, which coincides with the overall sentiment in the market.
Outlook
In this situation, keeping the price above 1.1100 may lead to a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions in the euro. This, in turn, will strengthen the upward cycle and prolong the mid-term trend to new price levels. However, if the 1.1050/1.1100 area puts pressure on the bulls, it will cause stagnation and, as a result, a price rebound.
The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, mid-term and intraday periods.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
If we look at the macro data, the dollar’s depreciation is somewhat surprising, as durable goods orders in the United States increased by 3.2%. While they were expected to grow by only 0.6%. We should pay attention to when the euro grew exactly. And it happened at the very opening of the European trading session. While the data on orders was published after the opening of the US trading session. So the question becomes even more interesting. And the whole point is that on Tuesday, an interview with Philip Lane was published on the European Central Bank’s website, who is not only the chief economist of the central bank but also a board member. During this interview, he explicitly said that on May 4th, a refinancing rate increase is simply inevitable. So, although the interview was published on Tuesday, it was closer to the evening. Almost at the end of the US trading session. So the euro’s growth from yesterday morning was just a reaction of investors to Lane’s statements. And the significance of his words is so great that it has simply overshadowed even the amazing data on durable goods orders in the United States.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
Today, the trend for the euro’s growth may continue, due to the first estimate of US GDP for the first quarter. After all, the pace of economic growth may noticeably slow down. Nonetheless, it is still growing, but a steady slow down in the economy increasingly convinces us of the inevitability of the economy sliding into recession. This will, of course, affect the dollar’s positions. It is extremely negative.
The EURUSD pair not only returned above the control level of 1.1000, but it also managed to locally update the high of the mid-term trend. This indicates the prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants, which in perspective may strengthen the euro’s positions.
During the sharp price change, on the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator crossed the middle line 50 upwards. This indicates an increase in the volume of long positions in the euro.
On the four-hour chart, the Alligator’s MAs completed the intertwining stage and has since then moved upwards, which coincides with the overall sentiment in the market.
Outlook
In this situation, keeping the price above 1.1100 may lead to a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions in the euro. This, in turn, will strengthen the upward cycle and prolong the mid-term trend to new price levels. However, if the 1.1050/1.1100 area puts pressure on the bulls, it will cause stagnation and, as a result, a price rebound.
The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, mid-term and intraday periods.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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