Global macro overview for 08/05/2018
May 8, 2018 1:21 pmVideo
Latest News
- Analysis of the GBP/USD pair on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Analysis for EUR/USD pair on April 18th. Dull ending to a dull week April 18, 2024
- USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 18th (US session) April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 18th (US session) April 18, 2024
- EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 18th (US session) April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 18th (analysis of morning deals) April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 18-20, 2024: buy above 1.0641 (21 SMA – 2/8 Murray) April 18, 2024
- Bitcoin slides ahead of halving event – Crypto News April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for April 18-20, 2024: buy above $62,500 or $63,037 (4/8 Murray – rebound) April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD. April 18th. Andrew Bailey did not clarify the situation on QE April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 18-20, 2024: buy above $2,375 (6/8 Murray – 21 SMA) April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – Netflix stock moves within narrow range ahead of earnings April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – GBPUSD tries to recoup some losses April 18, 2024
- USD/JPY in crisis April 18, 2024
- EUR/USD: trading plan for US session on April 18. EUR gets stuck at 1.0686 April 18, 2024
- Fed to keep policy tight for longer than markets view April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – BTCUSD drops to 6-week low as halving looms April 18, 2024
- Midweek Technical Look – EURUSD, US 500, WTI April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – AUDJPY pulls back but stays in uptrend April 18, 2024
- Forex forecast 04/18/2024: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga April 18, 2024
In July 2015, a nuclear agreement was signed to give the international community control over Iran’s actions in exchange for a conditional and temporary loosening of sanctions regarding primarily the possibility of oil exports. Its further fate is very uncertain, which pushed out WTI oil prices over $70 per barrel for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2014 at the beginning of May. The reaction of investors is an anticipation of the increase in geopolitical tensions, but also fears that the tightening of sanctions will reduce the flow of oil flowing to global markets and will accelerate the progressive process of reducing global stocks. Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the agreement, and the presidential legal advisor Rudy Giuliani announced that the United States would probably withdraw from it. Donald Trump is due to announce his decision before 08:00 pm GMT today.
The question of Iran’s reaction is also crucial. The withdrawal of the US from the agreement means that its conditions will cease to apply also to Tehran. An acute reaction and tightening of the position, or for example the announcement of the resumption of the nuclear program is unlikely, one should rather take into account the attempt to play on time and with a conciliatory attitude. President Rouhani finally rules to a large extent thanks to the popularity that has ensured him to ease the sanctions. His radical opponents may count on an increase in support at the time of withdrawal of the US agreement, which may translate into a wave of protests and escalation of internal tensions.
Since the US believes that diplomacy and economic sanctions have not helped sufficiently control Iran’s nuclear program, Trump may have to refer to the last resort, namely armed conflict and attempts to destroy alleged installations for uranium enrichment in airstrikes and rocket attacks. The growing risk of such a scenario and a serious destabilization of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East would be a factor with a stronger impact than the mere limitation of the availability of the crude oil and the prices will skyrocket.
Let’s now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. This main currency pair is very negatively corelated to the Crude Oil prices. The market has made a breakout from the tight range between the levels of 1.2803 – 1.2900 and the price made a new local high at the level of 1.2980, just below the round level of 1.3000. Nevertheless, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, which might indicate the rally is completed. The key level to the downside is the area of 1.2802-1.2813 and the key level to the upside is the area of 1.3126 – 1.3165.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: