On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (1.2039) on Wednesday, favoring the European currency and pushing it up to the level of 1.2175. A bounce from these levels allowed for a slight decline, but a rebound from 1.2112 suggests a return to 1.2175 and the upper boundary of the descending trend corridor. A bounce from these barriers will keep market sentiment bearish, and the British pound may once again head towards 1.2039. Closing above the channel will significantly improve the pound’s prospects for the coming weeks.
Despite the formation of a new upward wave, it does not change anything in the overall wave picture. To form the first sign of the end of the bearish trend, the pair needs to rise to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2250) at a minimum, and preferably higher. Alternatively, a new downward wave is needed that does not break the low from October 4th. Therefore, it is unlikely that we can expect even one such sign today. However, today or tomorrow, I believe it will become clear what to expect from the British pound in the near future.
In the UK, the Business Activity Index for the services sector was released yesterday, which turned out to be better than the market’s expectations and helped the pound strengthen in the morning. In the second half of the day, the S&P and ISM business activity indices in the United States for the services sector were neither weak nor strong, so the dollar did not receive any significant support or pressure. However, while business activity indices showed slight growth in the UK and the EU, they either slightly declined or remained unchanged in the US. As a result, the British pound had a slight advantage over the dollar yesterday. The only hope (for the pound) is that the end of the week will not be worse for it in terms of the information background.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the British currency after forming a bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. The growth process can continue towards the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.2289), but more precise targets can now be found on the hourly chart. I advise you to analyze it more closely. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish sentiment persists and is unlikely to change in the near future. There are no emerging divergences today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among “non-commercial” traders in the past reporting week has once again become less “bullish.” The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 345 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 17,669 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains bullish, and the gap between the number of long and short contracts is narrowing every week: it’s now 85,000 versus 69,000. In my opinion, the British pound had good prospects for further growth two months ago, but now many factors have turned in favor of the US dollar. I don’t expect a strong rally in the British pound in the near future. I believe that over time, bulls will continue to reduce their buy positions, as is the case with the European currency.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only one entry, which is incomparable to yesterday’s events. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be very weak or absent.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader’s Tips:
Sales of the British pound were possible on a bounce from the level of 1.2250, with targets at 1.2175, 1.2112, and 1.2039 on the hourly chart. All targets have been reached. I advised considering purchases in case of a bounce from the level of 1.2039, with targets at 1.2112 and 1.2175. Both targets have been achieved. New sales should be considered on a bounce from 1.2175, with targets at 1.2112 and 1.2039. New purchases should be considered on a close above the corridor on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2250 and 1.2289.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (1.2039) on Wednesday, favoring the European currency and pushing it up to the level of 1.2175. A bounce from these levels allowed for a slight decline, but a rebound from 1.2112 suggests a return to 1.2175 and the upper boundary of the descending trend corridor. A bounce from these barriers will keep market sentiment bearish, and the British pound may once again head towards 1.2039. Closing above the channel will significantly improve the pound’s prospects for the coming weeks.
Despite the formation of a new upward wave, it does not change anything in the overall wave picture. To form the first sign of the end of the bearish trend, the pair needs to rise to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2250) at a minimum, and preferably higher. Alternatively, a new downward wave is needed that does not break the low from October 4th. Therefore, it is unlikely that we can expect even one such sign today. However, today or tomorrow, I believe it will become clear what to expect from the British pound in the near future.
In the UK, the Business Activity Index for the services sector was released yesterday, which turned out to be better than the market’s expectations and helped the pound strengthen in the morning. In the second half of the day, the S&P and ISM business activity indices in the United States for the services sector were neither weak nor strong, so the dollar did not receive any significant support or pressure. However, while business activity indices showed slight growth in the UK and the EU, they either slightly declined or remained unchanged in the US. As a result, the British pound had a slight advantage over the dollar yesterday. The only hope (for the pound) is that the end of the week will not be worse for it in terms of the information background.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the British currency after forming a bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. The growth process can continue towards the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.2289), but more precise targets can now be found on the hourly chart. I advise you to analyze it more closely. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish sentiment persists and is unlikely to change in the near future. There are no emerging divergences today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among “non-commercial” traders in the past reporting week has once again become less “bullish.” The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 345 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 17,669 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains bullish, and the gap between the number of long and short contracts is narrowing every week: it’s now 85,000 versus 69,000. In my opinion, the British pound had good prospects for further growth two months ago, but now many factors have turned in favor of the US dollar. I don’t expect a strong rally in the British pound in the near future. I believe that over time, bulls will continue to reduce their buy positions, as is the case with the European currency.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only one entry, which is incomparable to yesterday’s events. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be very weak or absent.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader’s Tips:
Sales of the British pound were possible on a bounce from the level of 1.2250, with targets at 1.2175, 1.2112, and 1.2039 on the hourly chart. All targets have been reached. I advised considering purchases in case of a bounce from the level of 1.2039, with targets at 1.2112 and 1.2175. Both targets have been achieved. New sales should be considered on a bounce from 1.2175, with targets at 1.2112 and 1.2039. New purchases should be considered on a close above the corridor on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2250 and 1.2289.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: