GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on October 16th (analysis of morning deals)
October 16, 2023 2:22 pm
In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.2175 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.2175 led to a selling signal, resulting in a significant decline, allowing traders to gain over 30 points in profit. The technical picture for the second half of the day was slightly revised.
To open long positions for GBP/USD, the following is required:
Considering the excellent selling pressure on the pound during its rise, the planned data on the Empire Manufacturing Production Index and the speech by FOMC member Patrick T. Harker can only increase the pressure on the pair. It is best to take action to buy on a decline after the formation of a false breakout around the nearest support level of 1.2136, which will signal a buy with the pair rebounding towards 1.2175. We already had a significant drop from that level today, so there might not be any new active selling activity at this level. Breaking and consolidating above this range will allow buyers to regain control, and a retest from the top to the bottom will signal a buy with a target of updating 1.2221. The most distant target will be the area of 1.2267, where I will take a profit. If the scenario involves a drop to 1.2136 and a lack of activity in the second half of the day, things will not look good for pound buyers. This would also open the path towards 1.2108. Buying GBP/USD immediately on the rebound is only planned from the minimum of 1.2071 with a target of a 30-35 point intraday correction.
To open short positions for GBP/USD, the following is required:
Bears need to defend the nearest resistance at 1.2175, where moving averages that favor sellers also converge. A false breakout at this level, together with hawkish comments from the Fed representatives, similar to what I discussed above, will provide a selling signal capable of pushing the pair towards 1.2136. Breaking and retesting from the bottom to the top of this range will deal a more significant blow to buyer positions, opening the way to a minimum of 1.2108. The more distant target will be 1.2071, where I will take a profit. In the event of GBP/USD rising and no activity at 1.2175 in the second half of the day, trading will move into a sideways channel. In this case, I will delay selling until a false breakout at 1.2221. In the absence of downward movement, I plan to sell the pound immediately on the rebound from 1.2267, but only with the expectation of a pair correction of 30-35 points intraday.
In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report as of October 3rd, there was a reduction in long positions and a significant increase in short positions. This indicates that there are increasingly fewer pound buyers, especially after a series of disappointing economic growth figures for the UK and strong data from the US, which point to the need for further interest rate increases, making the US dollar more attractive in the medium term. The situation we are currently witnessing in the Middle East, while not greatly affecting the British Pound, does deter investors from risky assets, of which it is one, thereby maintaining the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. In the latest COT report, it is stated that non-commercial long positions decreased by 10,839 to the level of 73,911, while non-commercial short positions increased by 11,510 to the level of 80,591. As a result, the spread between long and short positions has decreased by 629. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.2091 from 1.2162.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages
Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the standard definition of daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
In the case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.2125 will act as support.
Description of indicators:
Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.2175 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.2175 led to a selling signal, resulting in a significant decline, allowing traders to gain over 30 points in profit. The technical picture for the second half of the day was slightly revised.
To open long positions for GBP/USD, the following is required:
Considering the excellent selling pressure on the pound during its rise, the planned data on the Empire Manufacturing Production Index and the speech by FOMC member Patrick T. Harker can only increase the pressure on the pair. It is best to take action to buy on a decline after the formation of a false breakout around the nearest support level of 1.2136, which will signal a buy with the pair rebounding towards 1.2175. We already had a significant drop from that level today, so there might not be any new active selling activity at this level. Breaking and consolidating above this range will allow buyers to regain control, and a retest from the top to the bottom will signal a buy with a target of updating 1.2221. The most distant target will be the area of 1.2267, where I will take a profit. If the scenario involves a drop to 1.2136 and a lack of activity in the second half of the day, things will not look good for pound buyers. This would also open the path towards 1.2108. Buying GBP/USD immediately on the rebound is only planned from the minimum of 1.2071 with a target of a 30-35 point intraday correction.
To open short positions for GBP/USD, the following is required:
Bears need to defend the nearest resistance at 1.2175, where moving averages that favor sellers also converge. A false breakout at this level, together with hawkish comments from the Fed representatives, similar to what I discussed above, will provide a selling signal capable of pushing the pair towards 1.2136. Breaking and retesting from the bottom to the top of this range will deal a more significant blow to buyer positions, opening the way to a minimum of 1.2108. The more distant target will be 1.2071, where I will take a profit. In the event of GBP/USD rising and no activity at 1.2175 in the second half of the day, trading will move into a sideways channel. In this case, I will delay selling until a false breakout at 1.2221. In the absence of downward movement, I plan to sell the pound immediately on the rebound from 1.2267, but only with the expectation of a pair correction of 30-35 points intraday.
In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report as of October 3rd, there was a reduction in long positions and a significant increase in short positions. This indicates that there are increasingly fewer pound buyers, especially after a series of disappointing economic growth figures for the UK and strong data from the US, which point to the need for further interest rate increases, making the US dollar more attractive in the medium term. The situation we are currently witnessing in the Middle East, while not greatly affecting the British Pound, does deter investors from risky assets, of which it is one, thereby maintaining the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. In the latest COT report, it is stated that non-commercial long positions decreased by 10,839 to the level of 73,911, while non-commercial short positions increased by 11,510 to the level of 80,591. As a result, the spread between long and short positions has decreased by 629. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.2091 from 1.2162.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages
Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the standard definition of daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
In the case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.2125 will act as support.
Description of indicators:
Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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