GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on March 13 (analysis of morning deals)
March 13, 2023 12:22 pm
I focused on the level of 1.2093 when I made my morning forecast and suggested trading actions based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The pressure on the pair resumed after a false breakout in the morning presented a buy signal, but the upward movement was just approximately 30 points. A sell signal was generated following a breakout and reverse test from the bottom up of 1.2093; as of the time of writing, the pair has already lost more than 35 points. The technical situation was left unchanged for the remainder of the day.
You require the following to open long positions on the GBP/USD:
The Federal Reserve System, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England revised their forecasts for future interest rate increases, which led to a severe rejection of risks. As a result, the US dollar gained strength relative to other assets, particularly the British pound. The afternoon has no news, so it’s probable that the pair’s fall will only get stronger. In the event of a downward movement, buyers will need to protect the 1.2055 level of support, which is slightly below where the moving averages are supporting the bulls. The decline and development of a false breakout at this level will result in an excellent entry point for buying and an attempt to bring the pound back up to the level of 1.2093, which was missed in the morning. Only if risk appetite returns, which is highly improbable given the news emanating from the US banking sector, would consolidation and a top-down test of this range take place. If the bulls gain power, all of this will cause the GBP/USD to rise, reaching a high of 1.2139. A retreat above this range will also bring growth opportunities to 1.2177, where I’ve fixed profits. A test of this level will also signal the bull market’s continuation. The pressure on the pair will unquestionably intensify if buyers are unable to complete the tasks assigned to them and miss 1.2055, which is pretty possible. In this scenario, I suggest that you avoid making hasty purchases and only start long positions around the minimum of 1.2019. I’ll buy GBP/USD as soon as it rises from the low of 1.1987 with the intention of a correction of 30-35 points during the day.
If you want to trade the short positions on GBP/USD, you will need:
Buyers received a crushing blow from sellers, and the volatility in the bond market contributed to this. It’s wise not to go into sales right now. If the pound rises in the afternoon, which cannot be ruled out, I will act when a false breakdown forms near 1.2093, where sellers must once again show themselves. Only this will serve as a signal to buy or sell with the expectation of a decline toward the 1.2055 support level. The pound will come under more pressure if this range is broken and tested from the bottom up, which will trigger a new, significant sell-off around 1.2019. The area around 1.1987 will be my farthest target, and that’s where I’ll set the profit. Considering the possibility of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears around 1.2093, which may occur if US news restores risk appetite, I encourage you not to rush into sales. In this scenario, the bears will retreat, and an entry point for short positions will only be formed by a false breakout at the next resistance level of 1.2139. If there is no activity there, I will sell GBP/USD right away at the highest price of 1.2177, but only if I believe the pair will fall back by 30-35 points over the day.
Long and short positions increased in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 7. Given the rise in long positions, it is clear that traders were pleased with the Bank of England’s plans. Others, on the other hand, decided to seize the opportunity and sell the more costly pound in the hopes that the Fed would continue its aggressive monetary policy this year. Except for a few reports, there are no significant fundamental signs for the UK this week, so the pressure on risky assets may slightly lessen, which theoretically may result in an upward correction of the pound relative to the US dollar. It is critical to hear what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has to say as he prepares the markets for the committee meeting at the end of March this year. According to the most recent COT data, short non-commercial positions increased by 6,701 to 61,252, while long non-commercial positions increased by 10,897 to 47,131. As a result, the non-commercial net position’s negative value decreased to -14,121 from -18,317 the previous week. In comparison to 1.2333, the weekly ending price dropped to 1.2041.
Signals from indicators
Moving Averages
Trade is taking place above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which suggests that the pair will continue to increase.
Notably, the author considers the time and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and departs from the standard definition of the traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bands by Bollinger
The indicator’s lower limit, which is located at 1.2019, will serve as support in the event of a downturn.
Description of indicators
Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence – moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.
Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
I focused on the level of 1.2093 when I made my morning forecast and suggested trading actions based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The pressure on the pair resumed after a false breakout in the morning presented a buy signal, but the upward movement was just approximately 30 points. A sell signal was generated following a breakout and reverse test from the bottom up of 1.2093; as of the time of writing, the pair has already lost more than 35 points. The technical situation was left unchanged for the remainder of the day.
You require the following to open long positions on the GBP/USD:
The Federal Reserve System, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England revised their forecasts for future interest rate increases, which led to a severe rejection of risks. As a result, the US dollar gained strength relative to other assets, particularly the British pound. The afternoon has no news, so it’s probable that the pair’s fall will only get stronger. In the event of a downward movement, buyers will need to protect the 1.2055 level of support, which is slightly below where the moving averages are supporting the bulls. The decline and development of a false breakout at this level will result in an excellent entry point for buying and an attempt to bring the pound back up to the level of 1.2093, which was missed in the morning. Only if risk appetite returns, which is highly improbable given the news emanating from the US banking sector, would consolidation and a top-down test of this range take place. If the bulls gain power, all of this will cause the GBP/USD to rise, reaching a high of 1.2139. A retreat above this range will also bring growth opportunities to 1.2177, where I’ve fixed profits. A test of this level will also signal the bull market’s continuation. The pressure on the pair will unquestionably intensify if buyers are unable to complete the tasks assigned to them and miss 1.2055, which is pretty possible. In this scenario, I suggest that you avoid making hasty purchases and only start long positions around the minimum of 1.2019. I’ll buy GBP/USD as soon as it rises from the low of 1.1987 with the intention of a correction of 30-35 points during the day.
If you want to trade the short positions on GBP/USD, you will need:
Buyers received a crushing blow from sellers, and the volatility in the bond market contributed to this. It’s wise not to go into sales right now. If the pound rises in the afternoon, which cannot be ruled out, I will act when a false breakdown forms near 1.2093, where sellers must once again show themselves. Only this will serve as a signal to buy or sell with the expectation of a decline toward the 1.2055 support level. The pound will come under more pressure if this range is broken and tested from the bottom up, which will trigger a new, significant sell-off around 1.2019. The area around 1.1987 will be my farthest target, and that’s where I’ll set the profit. Considering the possibility of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears around 1.2093, which may occur if US news restores risk appetite, I encourage you not to rush into sales. In this scenario, the bears will retreat, and an entry point for short positions will only be formed by a false breakout at the next resistance level of 1.2139. If there is no activity there, I will sell GBP/USD right away at the highest price of 1.2177, but only if I believe the pair will fall back by 30-35 points over the day.
Long and short positions increased in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 7. Given the rise in long positions, it is clear that traders were pleased with the Bank of England’s plans. Others, on the other hand, decided to seize the opportunity and sell the more costly pound in the hopes that the Fed would continue its aggressive monetary policy this year. Except for a few reports, there are no significant fundamental signs for the UK this week, so the pressure on risky assets may slightly lessen, which theoretically may result in an upward correction of the pound relative to the US dollar. It is critical to hear what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has to say as he prepares the markets for the committee meeting at the end of March this year. According to the most recent COT data, short non-commercial positions increased by 6,701 to 61,252, while long non-commercial positions increased by 10,897 to 47,131. As a result, the non-commercial net position’s negative value decreased to -14,121 from -18,317 the previous week. In comparison to 1.2333, the weekly ending price dropped to 1.2041.
Signals from indicators
Moving Averages
Trade is taking place above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which suggests that the pair will continue to increase.
Notably, the author considers the time and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and departs from the standard definition of the traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bands by Bollinger
The indicator’s lower limit, which is located at 1.2019, will serve as support in the event of a downturn.
Description of indicators
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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