You are here: Home > articles > Forex > GBP/USD: Trading plan for European session on July 24. COT report. Overview of yesterday’s trades. Pound finds its balance
GBP/USD: Trading plan for European session on July 24. COT report. Overview of yesterday’s trades. Pound finds its balance
July 24, 2023 8:21 amVideo
Latest News
- Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 19-22, 2024: sell below $2,395 (+2/8 Murray – overbought) April 19, 2024
- USD/JPY: Simple Trading tips for novice traders on April 19th (US session) April 19, 2024
- GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 19th (US session) April 19, 2024
- EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 19th (US session) April 19, 2024
- GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 19th (analysis of morning deals). The pound is trying to regain its advantage April 19, 2024
- EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 19th (analysis of morning deals). The euro compensated for the losses April 19, 2024
- Storm in a teacup: EUR/USD analysis April 19, 2024
- Video market update for April 19, 2024 April 19, 2024
- Eurozone PMIs eyed as euro’s focus turns to rate cuts beyond June – Preview April 19, 2024
- Technical Analysis – NZDUSD falls to fresh 5-month low April 19, 2024
- EUR/USD. April 19th. Bostic, Fed: the rate cut will happen at the end of the year April 19, 2024
- Forecast for GBP/USD pair on April 19, 2024 April 19, 2024
- Weekly Forex Outlook: 14/04/2024 – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda April 19, 2024
- Market Comment – Safe havens jump as Israel retaliates against Iran April 19, 2024
- Technical Analysis – USDCAD puts rally on hold near 1.3800 caution zone April 19, 2024
- USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 19 April 19, 2024
- GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 19 April 19, 2024
- EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 19 April 19, 2024
- Supercharged US dollar turns to GDP growth data – Preview April 19, 2024
- Technical Analysis – USDCHF remains in bullish structure April 19, 2024
Long positions on GBP/USD:
Today, there are quite important data releases for the UK, indicating economic activity. The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline, pushing the economy into a recession, while traders will focus on the services PMI as it represents a significant economic sector and remains above 50 points, indicating growth. A decrease in the composite PMI will put pressure on the pair. Hence, bulls will have to defend the midpoint of the new sideways channel at 1.2857, where the moving averages are located. A false breakout there will provide an entry point for long positions, capable of pushing upwards to the nearest resistance at 1.2901. Breaking and holding above this range will create an additional buying signal with a target of 1.2960, compensating for most of yesterday’s losses. The next target will be located at the resistance of 1.3032, where traders may take profits.
In the scenario of a decline to 1.2857 and low activity from bulls, the pound may continue to fall within the descending correction, which could evolve into a bearish trend. In such a case, only defending the next area at 1.2817, along with a false breakout, is likely to provide a signal for opening long positions. I plan to buy the pound on a rebound only from 1.2754, allowing an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.
Short positions on GBP/USD:
Bears remain active, and today’s important task is to defend the resistance at 1.2901, which serves as the upper boundary of the short-term sideways channel. In the event of the pair’s rise after strong PMI data from the UK, only a false breakout at this level may give a sell signal, continuing the downward correction towards 1.2857, increasing the pressure on the pair. Breaking and retesting the bottom of this range is likely to blow bulls’ positions, offering the chance for a larger decline towards 1.2817. The next target remains at 1.2754, where profits can be taken.
In case of the rise and no significant activity at 1.2901, bears’ confidence may waver, and bulls will likely return to the market, hoping that the UK economy can withstand the tough period of high interest rates. In that case, it would be better to postpone selling the pound until the test of the resistance at 1.2960. A false breakout there could provide an entry point for short positions. If there is no downward movement there, one may sell the pound on a rebound from 1.3032, allowing an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.
COT report:
In the COT report for July 11, there was an increase in both long and short positions. However, bulls outnumbered bears by two to one, confirming the bullish market trend we have been observing throughout this month. Pound bulls definitely have all the chances to continue acting more aggressively. On the one hand, the Fed is satisfied with the rapid decline in inflation, reducing the likelihood of further rate hikes. On the other hand, the Bank of England, despite all the economic problems, will continue to maintain a high-interest rate policy due to serious inflation issues affecting households’ living standards. The difference in policies will lead to a strengthening of the British pound and a weakening of the US dollar. The optimal strategy remains to buy the pound on dips. The last COT report shows that long non-commercial positions increased by 15,206 to 111,667, against 96,461, while short non-commercial positions rose only by 7,408 to 53,604, against 46,196. This led to another upward surge in non-commercial net positions to 58,063, against 50,265 a week earlier. The weekly price increased and reached 1.2932 against 1.2698.
Signals of indicators:
Moving Averages:
The pair is trading near the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market trend.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands:
In case of a decline, the lower boundary at 1.2840 will provide support.
Descriptions of indicators:
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: