Forecast for GBP/USD for January 15, 2019
January 15, 2019 7:22 amVideo
Latest News
- Analysis of the GBP/USD pair on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Analysis for EUR/USD pair on April 18th. Dull ending to a dull week April 18, 2024
- USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 18th (US session) April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 18th (US session) April 18, 2024
- EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 18th (US session) April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 18th (analysis of morning deals) April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 18-20, 2024: buy above 1.0641 (21 SMA – 2/8 Murray) April 18, 2024
- Bitcoin slides ahead of halving event – Crypto News April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for April 18-20, 2024: buy above $62,500 or $63,037 (4/8 Murray – rebound) April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD. April 18th. Andrew Bailey did not clarify the situation on QE April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 18-20, 2024: buy above $2,375 (6/8 Murray – 21 SMA) April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – Netflix stock moves within narrow range ahead of earnings April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – GBPUSD tries to recoup some losses April 18, 2024
- USD/JPY in crisis April 18, 2024
- EUR/USD: trading plan for US session on April 18. EUR gets stuck at 1.0686 April 18, 2024
- Fed to keep policy tight for longer than markets view April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – BTCUSD drops to 6-week low as halving looms April 18, 2024
- Midweek Technical Look – EURUSD, US 500, WTI April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – AUDJPY pulls back but stays in uptrend April 18, 2024
- Forex forecast 04/18/2024: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga April 18, 2024
GBP/USD
The main event of yesterday was the statement of the British Prime Minister Theresa May that the UK is not likely to withdraw from the EU, rather than it will leave the EU without a deal. The pound reacted slightly to the statement by growth, but this statement ultimately shows the inconsistency of the British establishment on the issue of Brexit from the very beginning of this venture. And despite the definitely disastrous mood of parliamentarians and observers regarding today’s vote on the agreement, there is a possibility that the draft will be adopted. The fact is that the number of supporters against the existing agreement is rapidly decreasing. At the weekend, it was said about the advantage of 120 votes of “eurosceptics”, on Monday about 100 votes, this morning about 60 votes… And this is despite the fact that all 256 Labor Party of the House of Commons is “against” voting a priori. So from these 60 it is possible to take away 10-15 more voices which will decide to vote against the party decision. And add 15-30 conservatives who change their mind “to plunge the country into chaos.” We have already seen such a maneuver when the conservatives tried to express a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.
Thus, the outcome of the vote is far from a predetermined conclusion. And even if the agreement is not accepted, it is with minimal advantage. If that happens, then Theresa May will no longer find it difficult to postpone the date of the “X-Day” (March 29) and hold another vote on another agreement, in which one comma will be corrected.
So, the political situation returns to the scenario we talked about 1-2 months ago – the agreement will eventually be adopted. What will happen to the market? If the vote turns out to be “against”, but with a minimal advantage, the pound may grow on expectations of a speedy re-vote, as the EU is ready to allow slight changes in the agreement. In this case, we expect the price to rise to 1.3045 with an attempt to overcome the resistance – the embedded trend line of the price channel with the top of 2014. If the vote is “for”, the price will very quickly reach the target range of 1.3362-1.3444. The range is formed by a high of July 9, 2018 and a peak of September 2016. The upper limit of the range is also the resistance of the Krusenstern line on the weekly scale.
But if the vote turns out to be really a failure, then the pound decline is determined by the current target levels of the falling scenario: 1.2777 – support for the Krusenstern line on H4, 1.2680 – support for the trend line of the price channel on the daily, 1.2460 – lower support for the price channel.
But in case of a failed vote, May’s supporters (positive establishment) have prepared countermeasures – an initiative group of conservatives is ready to immediately initiate the process of abandoning Brexit, which, of course, will soften and keep the pound from falling.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: