Forecast for EUR/USD on March 7, 2019
March 7, 2019 7:23 amVideo
Latest News
- Market Comment – Sentiment sours after strong US PMIs; stocks slip, dollar climbs May 24, 2024
- Technical Analysis – AUDUSD outlook turns neutral again May 24, 2024
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on May 24 May 24, 2024
- Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 24. Simple tips for beginners May 24, 2024
- Technical Analysis – WTI crude oil opens the way for bearish actions May 24, 2024
- Could developments in Iran and Saudi Arabia turn the tide for oil? – Special Report May 24, 2024
- Forecast for EUR/USD on May 24, 2024 May 24, 2024
- Forecast for GBP/USD on May 24, 2024 May 24, 2024
- Forecast for AUD/USD on May 24, 2024 May 24, 2024
- The yen may have already executed a long-term reversal. Overview of USD/JPY May 24, 2024
- Analysis of EUR/USD pair on May 23rd. Buyers make a second attempt to test the 1.0880 level May 23, 2024
- Analysis of GBP/USD pair on May 23rd. American reports saved the dollar May 23, 2024
- Forecast of EUR/USD pair on May 23, 2024 May 23, 2024
- Forecast of GBP/USD pair on May 23, 2024 May 23, 2024
- USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 23rd (US session) May 23, 2024
- GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 23rd (US session) May 23, 2024
- EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 23rd (US session) May 23, 2024
- GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 23rd (analysis of morning deals). Buyers hit resistance at 1.2760 May 23, 2024
- EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 23rd (analysis of morning deals). The euro rebounded from the 1.0819 level May 23, 2024
- Technical analysis – US 500 index slips after all-time high but holds within bullish area May 23, 2024
Today, the ECB will present its vision of monetary policy for the near future to the public. In the mood of the investment community, according to media reports, one main idea can be traced – against the backdrop of the deterioration of economic indicators in Europe, May elections to the European Parliament, after which candidates for the post of head of the ECB will be named, and Mario Draghi leaves his post in October, the European Central Bank will not change the current policy of waiting for “new incoming data”, except that it will clarify the details of the new TLTRO cycle – concessional lending to institutional borrowers. This company is already working not in favor of the euro, as it implies a lack of cheap money. But TLTRO is not conducted from a good life, it is an anti-crisis measure, and the reason lies in the proximity to the recession of Italy and, more importantly, Germany. But if we do not dramatize the situation, this issue is rather psychological, since in 2011-2012 such operations were not successful (relatively did not have, the demand was, but much lower than the expectations of the regulator). On the other hand, financial markets are still growing, so the security deposit of creditors will increase in price and it makes sense to play the old game a little, but in new conditions.
But the ECB may not indicate the timing of the LTRO’s launch, only to announce such a program with the intention of market demand and assessment of economic conditions in the near future, that is, its feasibility. According to some reports, the announcement of the program will be at the June meeting of the ECB.
Delaying the beginning of the program automatically means that it is not that bad in the eurozone economy. Indeed, the latest data showed an increase in the CPI (1.5% yoy), retail sales (1.3% in January), the preservation of unemployment by 7.8% against the pessimistic forecast of its increase.
In general, we adhere to the traditional approach of assessing the rhetoric of financial politicians – if nothing good is said, then we should look for weakness somewhere else. This is how markets have recently reacted to the neutrality of verbal information. The market supports the current trend – a rule that we expect to see today.
Technically, the euro is completely in a downward trend – by all indications of indicators on both scales – daily and four-hour. To increase the price, it is necessary to consolidate above the MACD line and the balance line of the daily chart, above 1.1371, since the balance line will increase with the price growth, and the price should grow faster than this indicator line. By overcoming this level, the Marlin oscillators on the daily and H4 will be in the growth zone and the price will star an attempt on new bullish goals, and the first of them – 1.1432 – a low on October 19 and 9 of last year.
Maintaining prices under the signal level of 1.1290, respectively, opens up a direct path to 1.1215. Further 1.1160 – support for the downward red price channel.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: