EUR/USD. April 24. Horizontal movement in all its glory
April 24, 2023 10:24 am
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its horizontal movement. Closer to the end of the day, the pair’s quotes reached the 1.1000 level, but there was no rebound and no close above it either. There were no signals on Friday, and traders’ activity was zero. Consolidation of the pair’s rate above the 1.1000 level will increase the likelihood of continued growth towards the 1.1035 and 1.1105 levels. A rebound from 1.1000 will favor the US currency, as will a decline to the 1.0917 level.
On Friday, US data could have pleased traders, but the US dollar only experienced a state of euphoria for a very short period. When it became known about the growth of business activity indices in the manufacturing, services, and composite sectors, the US currency sharply began to grow. Still, the bears’ enthusiasm quickly ended due to the low degree of importance of the published data. And by the end of the day, the European currency had grown even stronger than in the first half of the day before the release of American statistics. Thus, the US dollar should have benefited from the business activity data.
This week, interesting reports will start coming out only on Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday can be safely attributed to holidays, as the economic events calendars are empty. Since the pair has spent the last four days in a horizontal motion, there is no doubt that the first two days of the new week will show a similar picture. There are more favorable scenarios for us. Still, the market lately clearly demonstrates its desire to wait for important events and reports to determine the direction of movement. Bulls still hold the initiative in the market. Still, they are hesitant about further purchases of the euro currency, as the ECB may raise the interest rate by only 0.25% in May, which would mean abandoning an aggressive approach to combating high inflation.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the sideways corridor, allowing for the expected continued growth toward the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1273). The consolidation above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0941) was also successful, increasing the chances of further growth. The “bullish” divergence in the CCI indicator has similarly favored the euro. No new emerging divergences have been observed yet.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 1811 long and 2834 short contracts. The mood of large traders remains “bullish” and continues to strengthen overall. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators now amounts to 242,000, and short contracts – 78,000. The European currency has been growing for over half a year, but the informational background is beginning to change, which may lead to a decline in the EU currency. The ECB may reduce the rate hike pace to 0.25% at the next meeting, which is unlikely to please buyers. The difference between the number of long and short contracts is threefold, indicating the proximity of the moment when bears will become more active. So far, the strong “bullish” sentiment remains, but I think the situation will change soon.
Economic news calendar for the US and the European Union:
On April 24, the economic events calendar contained no important entries. No entries at all. The influence of the information background on the mood of traders today will be absent.
EUR/USD forecast and advice for traders:
New short positions can be opened when prices rebound from the 1.1000 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0917. Or when closing below 1.0917 with a target of 1.0843. Long positions were possible when rebounding from the 1.0917 level with a target of 1.1000. This deal can now be closed. New long positions – upon a new rebound from 1.0917.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its horizontal movement. Closer to the end of the day, the pair’s quotes reached the 1.1000 level, but there was no rebound and no close above it either. There were no signals on Friday, and traders’ activity was zero. Consolidation of the pair’s rate above the 1.1000 level will increase the likelihood of continued growth towards the 1.1035 and 1.1105 levels. A rebound from 1.1000 will favor the US currency, as will a decline to the 1.0917 level.
On Friday, US data could have pleased traders, but the US dollar only experienced a state of euphoria for a very short period. When it became known about the growth of business activity indices in the manufacturing, services, and composite sectors, the US currency sharply began to grow. Still, the bears’ enthusiasm quickly ended due to the low degree of importance of the published data. And by the end of the day, the European currency had grown even stronger than in the first half of the day before the release of American statistics. Thus, the US dollar should have benefited from the business activity data.
This week, interesting reports will start coming out only on Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday can be safely attributed to holidays, as the economic events calendars are empty. Since the pair has spent the last four days in a horizontal motion, there is no doubt that the first two days of the new week will show a similar picture. There are more favorable scenarios for us. Still, the market lately clearly demonstrates its desire to wait for important events and reports to determine the direction of movement. Bulls still hold the initiative in the market. Still, they are hesitant about further purchases of the euro currency, as the ECB may raise the interest rate by only 0.25% in May, which would mean abandoning an aggressive approach to combating high inflation.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the sideways corridor, allowing for the expected continued growth toward the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1273). The consolidation above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0941) was also successful, increasing the chances of further growth. The “bullish” divergence in the CCI indicator has similarly favored the euro. No new emerging divergences have been observed yet.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 1811 long and 2834 short contracts. The mood of large traders remains “bullish” and continues to strengthen overall. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators now amounts to 242,000, and short contracts – 78,000. The European currency has been growing for over half a year, but the informational background is beginning to change, which may lead to a decline in the EU currency. The ECB may reduce the rate hike pace to 0.25% at the next meeting, which is unlikely to please buyers. The difference between the number of long and short contracts is threefold, indicating the proximity of the moment when bears will become more active. So far, the strong “bullish” sentiment remains, but I think the situation will change soon.
Economic news calendar for the US and the European Union:
On April 24, the economic events calendar contained no important entries. No entries at all. The influence of the information background on the mood of traders today will be absent.
EUR/USD forecast and advice for traders:
New short positions can be opened when prices rebound from the 1.1000 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0917. Or when closing below 1.0917 with a target of 1.0843. Long positions were possible when rebounding from the 1.0917 level with a target of 1.1000. This deal can now be closed. New long positions – upon a new rebound from 1.0917.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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