EUR/USD. Analysis for September 4th. Correction before a new fall?
September 4, 2023 4:24 pm
The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair remains quite clear. The entire ascending trend segment, which began its development last year, has taken on a complex structure, and over the past six months, we have seen only three wave structures alternating with each other. Recently, I have consistently mentioned that I expect the pair to hover around the 1.5 figure, where the construction of the last upward three-wave structure began. I still stand by my words. Another upward three-wave structure is complete, so the market continues to build a downward trend.
The recent increase in quotes does not resemble a full-fledged wave 2 or b. We saw a similar wave from August 3rd to August 10th. Most likely, this is an internal corrective wave in 1 or a. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for some time within the framework of the first wave of the downward trend, and this wave will take on a rather elongated form. And this won’t be the end of the euro currency’s decline, as the construction of the third wave is still required.
Monday was quiet.
The euro/dollar pair rose by 30 basis points on Monday. Such a movement cannot be considered strong and influential on the wave pattern. We have seen a standard corrective wave that has little significance. However, something more important is an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0788 mark, equivalent to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale. This is the third unsuccessful attempt, which could indicate the completion of the assumed wave 1 or a. But this wave still needs to be completely formed, so I await a new decline.
Today, there are planned speeches by Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane in the European Union. Both are important figures in the European Central Bank and can make important comments. At the time of writing this article, there has yet to be any information about these speeches. That means they have yet to start or have yet to finish. We need to wait a little.
Since there was no news background on Monday, and there will be a few important events throughout the current week, it is essential to pay attention to wave analysis and various signals. Based on this, there is no need to rush with new sales until there is a successful attempt to overcome the 1.0788 mark. The internal wave pattern of the first wave of the new downward trend does not look convincing and complete, so we can expect further decline. However, with breaking through 1.0788, the decline is possible. We need to wait.
General Conclusions:
Based on the analysis, the construction of the upward wave set is complete. Targets in the range of 1.0500-1.0600 are quite achievable. Therefore, I recommend selling the pair with targets around 1.0637 and 1.0483. A successful attempt to break the 1.0788 mark will indicate the market’s readiness to continue selling, and then we can expect to achieve the targets I have mentioned for several weeks and months.
On a larger wave scale, the wave labeling of the ascending trend has become elongated, but it is likely complete. We have seen five upward waves, most likely a structure of a-b-c-d-e. Next, the pair built four three-wave structures: two down and two up. It has entered the stage of building another downward three-wave structure.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair remains quite clear. The entire ascending trend segment, which began its development last year, has taken on a complex structure, and over the past six months, we have seen only three wave structures alternating with each other. Recently, I have consistently mentioned that I expect the pair to hover around the 1.5 figure, where the construction of the last upward three-wave structure began. I still stand by my words. Another upward three-wave structure is complete, so the market continues to build a downward trend.
The recent increase in quotes does not resemble a full-fledged wave 2 or b. We saw a similar wave from August 3rd to August 10th. Most likely, this is an internal corrective wave in 1 or a. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for some time within the framework of the first wave of the downward trend, and this wave will take on a rather elongated form. And this won’t be the end of the euro currency’s decline, as the construction of the third wave is still required.
Monday was quiet.
The euro/dollar pair rose by 30 basis points on Monday. Such a movement cannot be considered strong and influential on the wave pattern. We have seen a standard corrective wave that has little significance. However, something more important is an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0788 mark, equivalent to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale. This is the third unsuccessful attempt, which could indicate the completion of the assumed wave 1 or a. But this wave still needs to be completely formed, so I await a new decline.
Today, there are planned speeches by Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane in the European Union. Both are important figures in the European Central Bank and can make important comments. At the time of writing this article, there has yet to be any information about these speeches. That means they have yet to start or have yet to finish. We need to wait a little.
Since there was no news background on Monday, and there will be a few important events throughout the current week, it is essential to pay attention to wave analysis and various signals. Based on this, there is no need to rush with new sales until there is a successful attempt to overcome the 1.0788 mark. The internal wave pattern of the first wave of the new downward trend does not look convincing and complete, so we can expect further decline. However, with breaking through 1.0788, the decline is possible. We need to wait.
General Conclusions:
Based on the analysis, the construction of the upward wave set is complete. Targets in the range of 1.0500-1.0600 are quite achievable. Therefore, I recommend selling the pair with targets around 1.0637 and 1.0483. A successful attempt to break the 1.0788 mark will indicate the market’s readiness to continue selling, and then we can expect to achieve the targets I have mentioned for several weeks and months.
On a larger wave scale, the wave labeling of the ascending trend has become elongated, but it is likely complete. We have seen five upward waves, most likely a structure of a-b-c-d-e. Next, the pair built four three-wave structures: two down and two up. It has entered the stage of building another downward three-wave structure.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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