EUR/USD. Analysis for April 3. Business activity of the European Union is once again declining
April 3, 2023 3:23 pm
The last upward wave confuses the euro/dollar pair’s 4-hour chart wave analysis. This wave may be the initial wave of a new upward trend segment (since the previous one can be considered three-wave and complete), or it may be an internal wave of a complex series of descending waves. So far, everything is developing an additional upward trend segment, but the GBP/USD pair is simultaneously developing a simpler pattern that assumes another downward wave. Thus, the wave pattern for the euro can be quite complex, making its analysis challenging. If the development of an upward set of waves continues at this time, it can be completed at the current positions, as the peak of the third wave has surpassed the peaks of the first. The same thing was observed in the previous downward formation. In the meantime, there are a variety of alternatives for wave analysis, which needs to be clarified. As the expected wave c (a series of descending waves) turned out to be very weak, it is now advisable to begin from the scenario involving an increase in the pair. Therefore, buyers are now more powerful than sellers.
The euro is both increasing and decreasing.
On Monday night, the euro/dollar pair dropped 60 basis points before gaining 90. There were no market updates during the night, and during the first half of the day, only the index of business activity in the European Union’s production sector was released. The market anticipated that this indicator would decline again, never reaching 50.0, so it was not surprised by the 47.3. However, the demand for the euro was rising at that time, so there was no correlation between the news context and market actions. The business activity index in the United States manufacturing sector will be released shortly, but the response may be the same – no. The pair demonstrates that it can move actively without news; however, increasing morning and afternoon quotes can further complicate the already challenging wave markup. If the pair begins to move exclusively in three-wave patterns, the lives of traders will be greatly complicated.
The market rarely moves perfectly, but alternating three-wave patterns may be the worst-case scenario. Everything on the market still depends on ECB and Fed interest rates or inflation. Still, the movements have been too chaotic recently, the wave analysis is not impulsive, and there are too many market reversals. Therefore, if the news background affects the market’s mood, it is very ambiguous, and it is only sometimes possible to benefit from it. Only a few events and reports will occur this week in the European Union, whereas the United States will host all the major ones. Friday is especially important when the Nonfarm Payrolls report is released.
Conclusions in general
Based on the analysis, the development of the section with the downward trend is complete. However, in the same way, the upward section of the trend may already be completed, which can also take only a three-wave form. Therefore, providing advice on sales and purchases is now possible. The news context does not answer the question of the pair’s most probable direction of movement. Also, wave analysis.
On the older wave scale, the wave analysis of the ascending trend section has taken on an extended form but is probably completed. We saw five upward waves, which are most likely the a-b-c-d-e pattern. A downward section of the trend may still need to be developed, and it could take any shape or size.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
The last upward wave confuses the euro/dollar pair’s 4-hour chart wave analysis. This wave may be the initial wave of a new upward trend segment (since the previous one can be considered three-wave and complete), or it may be an internal wave of a complex series of descending waves. So far, everything is developing an additional upward trend segment, but the GBP/USD pair is simultaneously developing a simpler pattern that assumes another downward wave. Thus, the wave pattern for the euro can be quite complex, making its analysis challenging. If the development of an upward set of waves continues at this time, it can be completed at the current positions, as the peak of the third wave has surpassed the peaks of the first. The same thing was observed in the previous downward formation. In the meantime, there are a variety of alternatives for wave analysis, which needs to be clarified. As the expected wave c (a series of descending waves) turned out to be very weak, it is now advisable to begin from the scenario involving an increase in the pair. Therefore, buyers are now more powerful than sellers.
The euro is both increasing and decreasing.
On Monday night, the euro/dollar pair dropped 60 basis points before gaining 90. There were no market updates during the night, and during the first half of the day, only the index of business activity in the European Union’s production sector was released. The market anticipated that this indicator would decline again, never reaching 50.0, so it was not surprised by the 47.3. However, the demand for the euro was rising at that time, so there was no correlation between the news context and market actions. The business activity index in the United States manufacturing sector will be released shortly, but the response may be the same – no. The pair demonstrates that it can move actively without news; however, increasing morning and afternoon quotes can further complicate the already challenging wave markup. If the pair begins to move exclusively in three-wave patterns, the lives of traders will be greatly complicated.
The market rarely moves perfectly, but alternating three-wave patterns may be the worst-case scenario. Everything on the market still depends on ECB and Fed interest rates or inflation. Still, the movements have been too chaotic recently, the wave analysis is not impulsive, and there are too many market reversals. Therefore, if the news background affects the market’s mood, it is very ambiguous, and it is only sometimes possible to benefit from it. Only a few events and reports will occur this week in the European Union, whereas the United States will host all the major ones. Friday is especially important when the Nonfarm Payrolls report is released.
Conclusions in general
Based on the analysis, the development of the section with the downward trend is complete. However, in the same way, the upward section of the trend may already be completed, which can also take only a three-wave form. Therefore, providing advice on sales and purchases is now possible. The news context does not answer the question of the pair’s most probable direction of movement. Also, wave analysis.
On the older wave scale, the wave analysis of the ascending trend section has taken on an extended form but is probably completed. We saw five upward waves, which are most likely the a-b-c-d-e pattern. A downward section of the trend may still need to be developed, and it could take any shape or size.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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