EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on September 15th (analysis of morning deals). Pressure on the euro may return at
September 15, 2023 3:23 pm
In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.0674 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let’s look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The euro saw some growth, but we have yet to reach the 1.0674 level for an update. The technical picture was completely revised for the second half of the day.
To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
During the American session, we expect a significant series of data that can impact the further direction of the euro and potentially have a negative impact. Strong figures on industrial production changes, as well as the rise in consumer sentiment in the United States from the University of Michigan and an increase in inflation expectations, may trigger selling in the euro and buying in the US dollar. For this reason, I recommend not rushing into long positions in the second half of the day. I will act only on a decrease towards the intermediate support level of 1.0651, formed at the end of the European session. The formation of a false breakout there will confirm an appropriate entry point for long positions with a recovery target towards 1.0685, where the moving averages are currently positioned and where most of the trading takes place. A breakthrough and test of this range from top to bottom will strengthen demand for the euro, allowing it to correct at the end of the week and aim for 1.0715. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.0746, where I will take profit. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of activity at 1.0651, which is likely to be the case, bears will strengthen their control over the market. In this case, only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0620 will signal buying the euro. I will consider opening long positions on a rebound from 1.0588 with the target of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
Sellers have also taken a wait-and-see position and are focused on US data. The lack of bullish activity only increases the chances of further euro decline, which I plan to take advantage of in the second half of the day. Of course, I would like an entry point on a false breakout around 1.0685, where the moving averages are located. However, on the other hand, a breakthrough and consolidation below 1.0651 will also be a suitable signal for increasing short positions, opening the way to a new monthly low of around 1.0620. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.0588, where I will take profit. In the event of upward movement in EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.0685, which will only be possible with a strengthening of the upward correction at the end of the week and very weak US data, euro buyers will get a chance. In such a scenario, I will postpone short positions until the new resistance at 1.0715. Selling there is also possible, but only after an unsuccessful breakout. I will open short positions on a rebound from 1.0746 with the goal of a downward correction of 30-35 points.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 5th showed an increase in both long and short positions. Very serious negative changes in activity in the eurozone and a downward revision of GDP for the second quarter led to an increase in short positions in the trading instrument. Add to all of this the statements from Fed representatives that interest rates in the US may be raised again, and it becomes clear why the dollar is showing growth while the European currency is declining. Ahead of us are very important inflation figures in the US, which will determine the future of monetary policy and affect the direction of EUR/USD. However, long positions are increasing during the euro’s decline, indicating a fairly high interest from risk asset buyers at such attractive prices. The COT report states that long non-commercial positions increased by 5,190 to 235,732, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 15,638 to 99,501. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 4,533. The closing price decreased to 1.0728 from 1.0882, indicating a bearish market.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a possible decline in the pair.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In the case of an upward movement, the upper boundary of the indicator at around 1.0670 will act as resistance.
Description of Indicators
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders’ short and long positions.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.0674 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let’s look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The euro saw some growth, but we have yet to reach the 1.0674 level for an update. The technical picture was completely revised for the second half of the day.
To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
During the American session, we expect a significant series of data that can impact the further direction of the euro and potentially have a negative impact. Strong figures on industrial production changes, as well as the rise in consumer sentiment in the United States from the University of Michigan and an increase in inflation expectations, may trigger selling in the euro and buying in the US dollar. For this reason, I recommend not rushing into long positions in the second half of the day. I will act only on a decrease towards the intermediate support level of 1.0651, formed at the end of the European session. The formation of a false breakout there will confirm an appropriate entry point for long positions with a recovery target towards 1.0685, where the moving averages are currently positioned and where most of the trading takes place. A breakthrough and test of this range from top to bottom will strengthen demand for the euro, allowing it to correct at the end of the week and aim for 1.0715. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.0746, where I will take profit. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of activity at 1.0651, which is likely to be the case, bears will strengthen their control over the market. In this case, only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0620 will signal buying the euro. I will consider opening long positions on a rebound from 1.0588 with the target of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
Sellers have also taken a wait-and-see position and are focused on US data. The lack of bullish activity only increases the chances of further euro decline, which I plan to take advantage of in the second half of the day. Of course, I would like an entry point on a false breakout around 1.0685, where the moving averages are located. However, on the other hand, a breakthrough and consolidation below 1.0651 will also be a suitable signal for increasing short positions, opening the way to a new monthly low of around 1.0620. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.0588, where I will take profit. In the event of upward movement in EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.0685, which will only be possible with a strengthening of the upward correction at the end of the week and very weak US data, euro buyers will get a chance. In such a scenario, I will postpone short positions until the new resistance at 1.0715. Selling there is also possible, but only after an unsuccessful breakout. I will open short positions on a rebound from 1.0746 with the goal of a downward correction of 30-35 points.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 5th showed an increase in both long and short positions. Very serious negative changes in activity in the eurozone and a downward revision of GDP for the second quarter led to an increase in short positions in the trading instrument. Add to all of this the statements from Fed representatives that interest rates in the US may be raised again, and it becomes clear why the dollar is showing growth while the European currency is declining. Ahead of us are very important inflation figures in the US, which will determine the future of monetary policy and affect the direction of EUR/USD. However, long positions are increasing during the euro’s decline, indicating a fairly high interest from risk asset buyers at such attractive prices. The COT report states that long non-commercial positions increased by 5,190 to 235,732, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 15,638 to 99,501. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 4,533. The closing price decreased to 1.0728 from 1.0882, indicating a bearish market.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a possible decline in the pair.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In the case of an upward movement, the upper boundary of the indicator at around 1.0670 will act as resistance.
Description of Indicators
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders’ short and long positions.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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