EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on November 2nd (analysis of morning deals). The euro continued to rise after the
November 2, 2023 12:25 pm
In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.0604 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The upward movement and the formation of a false breakout at this level resulted in a selling signal against the bullish trend. Yes, a downward movement occurred, but after a 10-point correction, buyers returned, continuing to push the euro upward. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.
To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
The Eurozone’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) didn’t bring any significant positive news, but keeping it at the same level was enough for the euro to break above 1.0604 on the second attempt. Now we are waiting for data on the number of initial jobless claims, changes in labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector, and labor costs in the US. In case of a decrease in the pair, the preferred level for entering long positions to continue the bullish trend will be the area around 1.0609. A false breakout there will provide a good entry point for long positions, with the expectation of further recovery of the pair and a test of the resistance at 1.0643. A breakout and a new high within this range will provide a chance for another leap with an update of the maximum at 1.0673, where I will take profit. Only very weak US data will lead to a Euro rally to 1.0706. If EUR/USD drops and there is no activity at 1.0609, which is unlikely, the pressure on the euro will increase, leading to a larger downward movement to the area of 1.0578, where moving averages are playing on the side of buyers. Only a false breakout will create a market entry signal. I will open long positions on a rebound from 1.0548 with the target of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
Sellers attempted to make a move, but it didn’t work. This is not surprising after yesterday’s statements by the FOMC. The next level where I expect major players to step in is the area around 1.0643. Only a false breakout there, along with strong labor market statistics in the US, will signal a sell-off with a move down to the nearest support at 1.0609. After a breakout and consolidation below this range and a bottom-up retest, I expect another sell signal with a target at the minimum of 1.0548, where I will take profit. In case EUR/USD moves up during the American session and there are no bears at 1.0643, which seems to be the case right now, buyers will likely attempt to reach the resistance at 1.0673. You can sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation and a false breakout. I will open short positions on a rebound from 1.0706 with the target of a downward correction of 30-35 points.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for October 24 showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Considering that everyone was expecting the European Central Bank to stop the cycle of interest rate hikes, its decision did not have a significant impact on the market’s balance of power. And even, as we can see, it helped the euro recover its positions against the US dollar. This week, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting where similar decisions to maintain the policy without changes will be made. However, considering the data from the US, it is not excluded that the committee members may hint at the possibility of a final interest rate hike in December of this year, which will strengthen the US dollar. The COT report shows that long non-commercial positions increased by 1,256 to 215,569, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 1,587 to 130,316. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 1,350. The closing price increased and reached 1.0613 against 1.0596, confirming the upward correction of the euro.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages:
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating the possibility of further growth in the euro.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).
Bollinger Bands
In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0530 will act as support.
Description of indicators:
Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence – convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.0604 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The upward movement and the formation of a false breakout at this level resulted in a selling signal against the bullish trend. Yes, a downward movement occurred, but after a 10-point correction, buyers returned, continuing to push the euro upward. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.
To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
The Eurozone’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) didn’t bring any significant positive news, but keeping it at the same level was enough for the euro to break above 1.0604 on the second attempt. Now we are waiting for data on the number of initial jobless claims, changes in labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector, and labor costs in the US. In case of a decrease in the pair, the preferred level for entering long positions to continue the bullish trend will be the area around 1.0609. A false breakout there will provide a good entry point for long positions, with the expectation of further recovery of the pair and a test of the resistance at 1.0643. A breakout and a new high within this range will provide a chance for another leap with an update of the maximum at 1.0673, where I will take profit. Only very weak US data will lead to a Euro rally to 1.0706. If EUR/USD drops and there is no activity at 1.0609, which is unlikely, the pressure on the euro will increase, leading to a larger downward movement to the area of 1.0578, where moving averages are playing on the side of buyers. Only a false breakout will create a market entry signal. I will open long positions on a rebound from 1.0548 with the target of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:
Sellers attempted to make a move, but it didn’t work. This is not surprising after yesterday’s statements by the FOMC. The next level where I expect major players to step in is the area around 1.0643. Only a false breakout there, along with strong labor market statistics in the US, will signal a sell-off with a move down to the nearest support at 1.0609. After a breakout and consolidation below this range and a bottom-up retest, I expect another sell signal with a target at the minimum of 1.0548, where I will take profit. In case EUR/USD moves up during the American session and there are no bears at 1.0643, which seems to be the case right now, buyers will likely attempt to reach the resistance at 1.0673. You can sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation and a false breakout. I will open short positions on a rebound from 1.0706 with the target of a downward correction of 30-35 points.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for October 24 showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Considering that everyone was expecting the European Central Bank to stop the cycle of interest rate hikes, its decision did not have a significant impact on the market’s balance of power. And even, as we can see, it helped the euro recover its positions against the US dollar. This week, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting where similar decisions to maintain the policy without changes will be made. However, considering the data from the US, it is not excluded that the committee members may hint at the possibility of a final interest rate hike in December of this year, which will strengthen the US dollar. The COT report shows that long non-commercial positions increased by 1,256 to 215,569, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 1,587 to 130,316. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 1,350. The closing price increased and reached 1.0613 against 1.0596, confirming the upward correction of the euro.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages:
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating the possibility of further growth in the euro.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).
Bollinger Bands
In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0530 will act as support.
Description of indicators:
Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence – convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: