EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 17th (analysis of morning trades). Euro buyers defend 1.0964
April 17, 2023 1:23 pm
In my morning forecast, I emphasized the level of 1.1001 and suggested that market entry decisions be based on it. Let’s examine the 5-minute chart to determine what transpired there. The growth and formation of a false breakout at 1.11001 resulted in a signal to sell the euro, which immediately resulted in a fall to 1.0964, enabling you to make a profit of approximately 35 points. The bulls’ active defense of 1.0964 generated a purchase signal, which indicated an increase of 20 points at the time of writing. From a technical standpoint, nothing has altered for the second half of the day, and the strategy has not changed either.
To initiate long positions on the EUR/USD, you must:
Nothing would cause an increase in volatility during the American session, so sellers of the euro will continue to dominate, not forsaking attempts to break below 1.0964. The New York Empire State, manufacturing activity index, is unlikely to impact market direction significantly. I recommend adhering to the morning script and acting accordingly. If the euro comes under renewed pressure in the afternoon, it would be prudent to consider selling in the area of 1.0964, which has been challenged twice in recent weeks. Only the formation of a false breakout at this level will result in a buy signal and an increase to the nearest resistance at 1.11001. A breakout and a top-down test of this range, which the bulls failed to do in the first half of the day, will strengthen buyers’ confidence that it will return to the upward trend and form an additional entry point for building up long positions with an update of the next resistance at 1.1035, just below which the bears’ moving averages pass. The area around 1.1071 remains the farthest target, where I will adjust the profit. If EUR/USD declines and there are no purchasers at 1.0964 in the afternoon, which is highly probable, the pressure on the euro will increase, and we will see a new decline to 1.0935. Only the emergence of a false breakout will serve as an indication to purchase the euro. I will open long positions promptly in anticipation of a rebound from the day’s low of 1.0902, targeting a 30-point-plus intraday correction.
To establish short positions on the EUR/USD, you must:
The sellers have performed admirably in protecting the resistance of 1.11001, and now, during the American period, we must do the same. By analogy with what I have analyzed above, only the formation of a false breakout at 1.1001 could lead to a decline in the pair to the area of 1.0964 support. This level has already resolved itself twice, so I will no longer employ special delusions. The breakout and reverse test will increase pressure, continuing the downward correction and driving EUR/USD to 1.0935. Fixing below this range is the fastest path to 1.0902, where I advise fixing profits. In the event of an upward movement of EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.1500, which cannot be ruled out, especially after the protection of 1.0964, I recommend delaying short positions to the 1.1035 level. Additionally, it is feasible to sell there only after a failed consolidation. I will establish short positions immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1071, aiming for a 30-35-point decline.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for April 4 revealed a rise in both long and short positions. Buyers of risky assets, such as the euro, will prepare for March inflation and retail sales data from the United States, given that nothing noteworthy occurred last week and the labor market data did not provide any particular surprises. The minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve will be just as intriguing. If further interest rate increases are deemed necessary, the dollar may recover some of its losses from the previous month. But if investors see data indicating that it is feasible to abandon policy tightening, the euro will continue to grow. According to the COT report, long non-profit positions increased by 2,498 to 225,416, while short non-profit positions increased by 4,130 to 82,023. Total non-commercial net position decreased from 145,025 to 143,393 by the end of the week. The weekly closing price increased from 1.0896 to 1.1.
Indicators signals:
Moving Averages
Trading is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating that the pair remains under pressure.
The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which contrasts with the standard definition of daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
In the event of a decline, the indicator’s lower limit near 1.0964 will act as support.
Description of indicators
Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence – moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.
Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
In my morning forecast, I emphasized the level of 1.1001 and suggested that market entry decisions be based on it. Let’s examine the 5-minute chart to determine what transpired there. The growth and formation of a false breakout at 1.11001 resulted in a signal to sell the euro, which immediately resulted in a fall to 1.0964, enabling you to make a profit of approximately 35 points. The bulls’ active defense of 1.0964 generated a purchase signal, which indicated an increase of 20 points at the time of writing. From a technical standpoint, nothing has altered for the second half of the day, and the strategy has not changed either.
To initiate long positions on the EUR/USD, you must:
Nothing would cause an increase in volatility during the American session, so sellers of the euro will continue to dominate, not forsaking attempts to break below 1.0964. The New York Empire State, manufacturing activity index, is unlikely to impact market direction significantly. I recommend adhering to the morning script and acting accordingly. If the euro comes under renewed pressure in the afternoon, it would be prudent to consider selling in the area of 1.0964, which has been challenged twice in recent weeks. Only the formation of a false breakout at this level will result in a buy signal and an increase to the nearest resistance at 1.11001. A breakout and a top-down test of this range, which the bulls failed to do in the first half of the day, will strengthen buyers’ confidence that it will return to the upward trend and form an additional entry point for building up long positions with an update of the next resistance at 1.1035, just below which the bears’ moving averages pass. The area around 1.1071 remains the farthest target, where I will adjust the profit. If EUR/USD declines and there are no purchasers at 1.0964 in the afternoon, which is highly probable, the pressure on the euro will increase, and we will see a new decline to 1.0935. Only the emergence of a false breakout will serve as an indication to purchase the euro. I will open long positions promptly in anticipation of a rebound from the day’s low of 1.0902, targeting a 30-point-plus intraday correction.
To establish short positions on the EUR/USD, you must:
The sellers have performed admirably in protecting the resistance of 1.11001, and now, during the American period, we must do the same. By analogy with what I have analyzed above, only the formation of a false breakout at 1.1001 could lead to a decline in the pair to the area of 1.0964 support. This level has already resolved itself twice, so I will no longer employ special delusions. The breakout and reverse test will increase pressure, continuing the downward correction and driving EUR/USD to 1.0935. Fixing below this range is the fastest path to 1.0902, where I advise fixing profits. In the event of an upward movement of EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.1500, which cannot be ruled out, especially after the protection of 1.0964, I recommend delaying short positions to the 1.1035 level. Additionally, it is feasible to sell there only after a failed consolidation. I will establish short positions immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1071, aiming for a 30-35-point decline.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for April 4 revealed a rise in both long and short positions. Buyers of risky assets, such as the euro, will prepare for March inflation and retail sales data from the United States, given that nothing noteworthy occurred last week and the labor market data did not provide any particular surprises. The minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve will be just as intriguing. If further interest rate increases are deemed necessary, the dollar may recover some of its losses from the previous month. But if investors see data indicating that it is feasible to abandon policy tightening, the euro will continue to grow. According to the COT report, long non-profit positions increased by 2,498 to 225,416, while short non-profit positions increased by 4,130 to 82,023. Total non-commercial net position decreased from 145,025 to 143,393 by the end of the week. The weekly closing price increased from 1.0896 to 1.1.
Indicators signals:
Moving Averages
Trading is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating that the pair remains under pressure.
The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which contrasts with the standard definition of daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
In the event of a decline, the indicator’s lower limit near 1.0964 will act as support.
Description of indicators
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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