EUR/USD correction will end sooner or later
August 21, 2023 7:23 pmVideo
Latest News
- Analysis for GBP/USD on April 29th. The market is waiting for important statistics April 29, 2024
- Technical Analysis – GBPAUD in danger of bearish shift as it tests 50% Fibonacci April 29, 2024
- Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 29-30, 2024: sell below 1.0750 (200 EMA – 4/8 Murray) April 29, 2024
- Trading Signals for GBP/USD for April 29-30, 2024: sell below 1.2553 (200 EMA – overbought) April 29, 2024
- Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, Oil April 29, 2024
- Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 29-30, 2024: buy above $2,322 (21 SMA – rebound) April 29, 2024
- Weekly Technical Outlook: 29/04/2024 – USDJPY, EURUSD, Oil April 29, 2024
- Technical Analysis – Apple stock bounces off 1-year low April 29, 2024
- Technical Analysis – GBPUSD recovers from 5-month low April 29, 2024
- USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 29th (US session) April 29, 2024
- GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 29th (US session) April 29, 2024
- EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 29th (US session) April 29, 2024
- GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 29th (analysis of morning deals). The pound continues to be bought at every April 29, 2024
- EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 29th (analysis of morning deals). The euro remains locked in a side channel April 29, 2024
- Technical Analysis – USDJPY plummets after 34-year high of 160.20 April 29, 2024
- EUR/USD. April 29th. The bulls continue to advance April 29, 2024
- GBP/USD. April 29th. Bulls find it extremely difficult to move upwards, but this week could change everything April 29, 2024
- Market Comment – Yen spikes on suspected intervention; big week awaits the dollar April 29, 2024
- Forex forecast 04/29/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and BTC from Sebastian Seliga April 29, 2024
- Federal Reserve encounter troubles April 29, 2024
Power lies in truth. And the truth is that the stronger the U.S. economy appears, the worse for the dollar in the medium term. Americans will absorb European and Chinese exports and help the world economy get back on its feet. This is excellent news for pro-cyclical currencies, including the euro. EUR/USD will rise. It just needs to give the main currency pair some time.
At first glance, dollar enthusiasts have nothing to worry about. The leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed is projecting a 5.8% growth in U.S. GDP in the third quarter, the best economic growth in the last 20 years if we exclude the post-pandemic recovery period. Most likely, such figures mean that nothing terrible will happen to the U.S. in 2024. However, this should not mislead the ‘bears’ in the EUR/USD market.
Dynamics of the American economy
In August, the U.S. dollar proved to be more resilient than one might have assumed, given the weaknesses of its main competitors. The Eurozone continues to teeter on the brink of recession, and rising gas prices bring back the specter of an energy crisis in the Old World. China is probably the biggest disappointment of 2023. Its economy is recovering from COVID-19 much slower than expected. The rate cut by the People’s Bank of China leads to a weakening of the yuan and is perceived as panic within chinese officials.
However, this won’t last forever. Thanks to the strength of the U.S., both the currency bloc and China will rise again. Moreover, the emerging Goldilocks regime will lead to an increase in American stock indices and improve the global risk appetite.
According to nearly 70% of those surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, the Federal Reserve will be able to bring inflation down to the 2% target without causing a recession. In March, only 30% thought so. Three out of four respondents see PCE at around 3% by year-end. Inflation slowdown amid rapid economic growth creates a favorable backdrop for American stocks. The resumption of the upward trend in the S&P 500 is key to the rise of EUR/USD.
According to BNY Mellon Investment Management, the ECB will raise the deposit rate to 4% in September and probably bring it to 4.25% amid sticky inflation in the services sector and high wage growth rates, contradicting market consensus. Investors believe that the cycle of monetary policy tightening is over. If the company is right, EUR/USD should rise.
Dynamics of rates, yields, and inflation in the U.S. and the Eurozone
Thus, the risks of restoring an upward trend in the primary currency pair are quite significant. The question is how much time it will take. How soon will the euro find its bottom? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole may provide a clue.
Technically, the ‘bulls’ in the EUR/USD are trying to play a doji bar at the lower boundary of the fair value range of 1.086-1.111 and switch to counterattack. Meanwhile, the pair’s rise above 1.091 may serve as a basis for short-term long positions.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: