Britain’s decision time: “Brexit” or “Bremain”? | 23/06/2016
June 23, 2016 8:58 am
Britain’s decision time: “Brexit” or “Bremain”? • Polls still indicate a tight race, but bookmakers’ probability for “Remain” is 78%. • Negative reactions in “Leave” may be much larger than positive reactions in “Remain”. If Britain remains: If Britain leaves: -GBP gains -GBP likely to plunge -UK equities (Global sentiment) gain -UK equities likely to collapse -Euro may gain -EUR could fall, but less than GBP -Safe havens JPY, CHF and gold may fall -Safe havens may rally considerably -CB policies likely to remain unaffected -BoE, ECB and BoJ may add more stimulus -FX interventions unlikely -May trigger BoJ intervention in JPY -SNB likely to intervene in EUR/CHF • Norges Bank likely to hold its fire for now • Norges Bank policy meeting. Expected to remain on hold. NOK could gain on the decision. • Today’s indicators: • France, Germany & Eurozone: Prel. Markit manuf. & services PMIs for Jun. • US: New home sales for May and prel. Markit manuf. PMI for Jun.
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Britain’s decision time: “Brexit” or “Bremain”?
• Polls still indicate a tight race, but bookmakers’ probability for “Remain” is 78%.
• Negative reactions in “Leave” may be much larger than positive reactions in “Remain”.
If Britain remains: If Britain leaves:
-GBP gains -GBP likely to plunge
-UK equities (Global sentiment) gain -UK equities likely to collapse
-Euro may gain -EUR could fall, but less than GBP
-Safe havens JPY, CHF and gold may fall -Safe havens may rally considerably
-CB policies likely to remain unaffected -BoE, ECB and BoJ may add more stimulus
-FX interventions unlikely -May trigger BoJ intervention in JPY
-SNB likely to intervene in EUR/CHF
• Norges Bank likely to hold its fire for now
• Norges Bank policy meeting. Expected to remain on hold. NOK could gain on the decision.
• Today’s indicators:
• France, Germany & Eurozone: Prel. Markit manuf. & services PMIs for Jun.
• US: New home sales for May and prel. Markit manuf. PMI for Jun.
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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