• Bitcoin edges higher amid growing optimism on spot ETF approval

  • Cryptos decouple from stocks, defying geopolitical jitters and rising yields

  • Bitcoin reclaims the crucial 200-day SMA

Investors count on spot-Bitcoin ETF approval

Undoubtedly, Bitcoin is experiencing one of its best weeks in recent months, currently being around 10% up since Monday. This latest rally has helped the king of cryptos conquer the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which had repeatedly curbed any upside attempts in early October. The main catalyst behind those gains is the renewed optimism around the SEC greenlighting spot-Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) launches.

A false report on Monday stating that the SEC indeed approved an application triggered a wave of buy orders, but the price reversed lower as soon as the headline got disproved. However, this was not enough to scare off the bulls as they kept applying upside pressures on Bitcoin, sending it to a fresh two-month peak in Friday’s session. Hence, it is clear that Bitcoin could rally hard in the case that spot-ETFs are given official clearance, but the latest wild moves might be endorsing the SEC’s view that spot cryptocurrency markets can be easily manipulated.

Cryptos trade in their own world

What’s more striking though in the latest crypto rally is that it comes in a period of elevated uncertainty in global markets. In the past 10 days markets have been flooded with risk-off sentiment, with investors damping risk-sensitive assets in favour of safe havens. Moreover, the Middle East conflict could potentially tip the global economy into a recession as a potential blockage of the Hormuz strait would skyrocket oil prices.

Yet, cryptocurrencies seem unhindered by those risks, deepening their correlation breaks against traditional investments. At the same time, digital assets keep defying macroeconomic forces as the ongoing advance in Treasury yields has left them unaffected. Investors could argue that cryptos’ decentralised nature has helped them attract safe haven flows amid all this turbulence, but with bond yields at such high levels it is difficult to make a case in cryptos’ favor.

Advance shows no signs of easing

From a technical standpoint, BTCUSD has been in a steady uptrend since finding its feet at the September low of $24,915, generating a structure of higher highs and higher lows. In today’s session, the price posted a fresh two-month peak, while jumping above the $30,000 psychological mark for the first time since August 9.

If the upward move resumes, the price could test the April peak of $31,064 ahead of the 2023 high of $31,827.

On the flipside, should Bitcoin pull back, the bears could aim at $28,985, which acted both as resistance and support in recent months. A break below that region could set the stage for the October low of $26,500.

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