Euro & Pound Diverge


Morning Report: 06.30 London


• The euro remains pressured this morning after heavy selling on Wednesday amid speculation that the ECB will extend its easing program and general policy uncertainty. The move saw the euro sink against the dollar and especially against the pound.

                    

                    

• The pound is tucking back slightly this morning, but the GBP/USD has some way to go after launching higher yesterday. Unemployment data remain unchanged, while claimant count numbers dropped unexpectedly, with average earnings rising – an almost perfect set of numbers.

                    

                    

• The dollar index continues to push higher and has quietly put an impressive run together throughout May. The USD/JPY has dutifully followed suit.

                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
• The Australian dollar remains pressured as the commodity advance stalls. This comes despite improved unemployment data.

                    
           
Coming up today:

• Today we have UK retail sales at 09.30.

• Following this, we have the release of the minutes from the last ECB meeting.

• At 13.30, we have the Philly Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims, and Canadian wholesale sales.

• Then at 14.15, FOMC member Fischer speaks, followed by FOMC member Dudley speaking at 15.30.

• MPC member Vlieghe speaks at 18.00.

Trade Idea:

• It’s been one-way traffic for the euro throughout May, but there could be more downside to come if the ECB easing rumors persist.

                     

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/USD will close below 1.1150 in 14 days time for a potential return of 168%.

                          

                                                         

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