Euro Indifferent to
Fate of Greece

Morning Report: 07.00 London

• Thursday saw much excitement over a supposed leak from German paper Zeit which claimed that a major concession had been given to Greece with a further extension (possibly excluding the IMF). This was in turn denied by EU diplomats, but the Euro still held up well considering the context. At the time of writing, the latest round of Greek negotiations appear to be going to the wire once again, yet the Euro continues to stand relatively firm. The bond market has borne the brunt of volatility while the euro is seemingly inoculated thanks in part to the effect of the ECB’s quantitative easing program.

• The Euro is nipping back this morning against the US Dollar, while the EUR/GBP continues its down swing.

                           

• Following on from a dovish Federal reserve meeting on Wednesday, Thursday saw an almost perfect storm of US data, with lower than expected CPI coming in with better than expected unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index.

                           

• The Australian Dollar is under pressure again after a period of positive trading.

                           

                           

• Meanwhile, the USD/JPY is back on the rise after finding support yesterday.


Coming up today:

• Coming up today, we have UK public sector net borrowing at 09.30.

• Following this we have Canadian core CPI at 13.30, released alongside core retail sales.

Trade Idea:

Current peripheral bond yields are imply a sense of alarm surrounding the Greek situations, but these fears are far from plumbing the depths of the 2011/12 crisis. The question may not now be whether Greece will default and exit the euro, but how bad the result will be for wider markets. Judging by current market activity, the prognosis appears to be that any default or exit may be painful, but far from catastrophic. There may even be a scenario where Greece pays private creditors while reneging on larger organisations such as the IMF.

                                  
             
Markets are often wrong, but while the dollar remains under pressure, there’s scope for further EUR/USD upside. A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the EUR/ USD will close above 1.1500 in 14 days for a potential return of 212%.

                              
                             

Disclaimer: This financial market report is intended for educational and information purposes only. It should not be construed as investment or financial advice and you should not rely on any of its content to make or refrain from making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or position of Binary.com accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses incurred by users in their trading. Binary options trading may incur losses as well as gains.


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