Analysis of GBP/USD on June 14th. The pound did not think for long about how to react to the reports
June 14, 2023 5:22 pm
The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair currently unexpectedly changes its appearance to a simpler and more understandable one. Instead of a complex corrective trend segment, we can see an upward impulse. The assumed wave 2 or b could have completed its formation last week. If this is the case, the formation of an ascending wave 3 or c has begun and is continuing, providing an excellent opportunity for the pound to rise to the 30 figure. It is up to you to decide whether the current news background justifies this. The pound has no reason to continue the rise up to the 30 or 35 (which is quite possible if it is an impulse segment of the trend). Wave 2 or b will not take on a more complex form. Wave analysis can always transform into a more complex one, but I prefer to rely on its simpler manifestations as they are easier to forecast.
The wave analysis for the EUR/USD pair differs from that of GBP/USD. A descending wave set is expected for the euro, and a hypothetical complication of the upward trend segment is not being considered. Meanwhile, everything appears as a new ascending trend segment for the pound, opening up excellent prospects. This segment may be shortened, consisting of three waves, and wave 3 or c could even end today. But this scenario is reserved.
British statistics were weak on Wednesday, but the pound still rose. The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair increased by 75 basis points on Wednesday after rising by 100 on Tuesday. In just two days, the pound has increased in price by almost 200 points, and I find it difficult to speculate on the reason. Is it a reaction to reasonably good statistics from the UK or to the FOMC meeting, the results of which will be known tonight? It’s no secret that markets often try to anticipate important information in advance. If a certain rate opinion is formed in the market and is beyond doubt, why not start playing it in advance? Then on the day, the decision is announced, the market will realize profits from deals opened a few days before. I do not exclude a decline in the pair tonight.
British statistics on Tuesday were strong, and there is no argument. The unemployment rate decreased, and the number of jobless claims was much better than expected. However, today’s economic reports could have been more attractive. GDP increased by 0.2% m/m in April, as expected by the market. Industrial production decreased by 0.3%, which the market needed to prepare for. But the pound didn’t pause for half an hour and continued to rise. The US producer price index has further reduced demand for the US currency. I cannot conclude that the pound is rising undeservedly, but the demand for it is growing too quickly.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair has changed and now suggests the formation of an ascending wave, which can end at any moment. It would be possible to recommend buying the pair now, but this week’s news background is strong, and the market may react sharply and ambiguously. Not to mention the data itself that will be released. Based on this, I would take my time with either buying or selling at this time.
The picture is similar to the EUR/USD pair on a larger wave scale, but there are still some differences. The descending corrective trend segment is complete, and the formation of a new ascending trend is continuing, which could end as early as tomorrow or take on a full five-wave form. Even if it becomes a three-wave form, the third wave can be extensive or shortened.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair currently unexpectedly changes its appearance to a simpler and more understandable one. Instead of a complex corrective trend segment, we can see an upward impulse. The assumed wave 2 or b could have completed its formation last week. If this is the case, the formation of an ascending wave 3 or c has begun and is continuing, providing an excellent opportunity for the pound to rise to the 30 figure. It is up to you to decide whether the current news background justifies this. The pound has no reason to continue the rise up to the 30 or 35 (which is quite possible if it is an impulse segment of the trend). Wave 2 or b will not take on a more complex form. Wave analysis can always transform into a more complex one, but I prefer to rely on its simpler manifestations as they are easier to forecast.
The wave analysis for the EUR/USD pair differs from that of GBP/USD. A descending wave set is expected for the euro, and a hypothetical complication of the upward trend segment is not being considered. Meanwhile, everything appears as a new ascending trend segment for the pound, opening up excellent prospects. This segment may be shortened, consisting of three waves, and wave 3 or c could even end today. But this scenario is reserved.
British statistics were weak on Wednesday, but the pound still rose. The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair increased by 75 basis points on Wednesday after rising by 100 on Tuesday. In just two days, the pound has increased in price by almost 200 points, and I find it difficult to speculate on the reason. Is it a reaction to reasonably good statistics from the UK or to the FOMC meeting, the results of which will be known tonight? It’s no secret that markets often try to anticipate important information in advance. If a certain rate opinion is formed in the market and is beyond doubt, why not start playing it in advance? Then on the day, the decision is announced, the market will realize profits from deals opened a few days before. I do not exclude a decline in the pair tonight.
British statistics on Tuesday were strong, and there is no argument. The unemployment rate decreased, and the number of jobless claims was much better than expected. However, today’s economic reports could have been more attractive. GDP increased by 0.2% m/m in April, as expected by the market. Industrial production decreased by 0.3%, which the market needed to prepare for. But the pound didn’t pause for half an hour and continued to rise. The US producer price index has further reduced demand for the US currency. I cannot conclude that the pound is rising undeservedly, but the demand for it is growing too quickly.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair has changed and now suggests the formation of an ascending wave, which can end at any moment. It would be possible to recommend buying the pair now, but this week’s news background is strong, and the market may react sharply and ambiguously. Not to mention the data itself that will be released. Based on this, I would take my time with either buying or selling at this time.
The picture is similar to the EUR/USD pair on a larger wave scale, but there are still some differences. The descending corrective trend segment is complete, and the formation of a new ascending trend is continuing, which could end as early as tomorrow or take on a full five-wave form. Even if it becomes a three-wave form, the third wave can be extensive or shortened.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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