Analysis and forecast for USD/CHF on March 11, 2021
March 11, 2021 12:23 pm
Although today is already Thursday and the current five-day period is inexorably nearing its end, I suggest starting the analysis of the dollar/franc currency pair with a weekly timeframe.
Weekly
As you can see, the consideration of the weekly schedule is not chosen in vain. During this period, important and significant events occur. In my articles, I constantly pay attention to the Ichimoku indicator, which I consider one of the most accurate for determining the price movement and receiving trading signals. However, in my opinion, this indicator is most effective on the weekly and daily timeframes, since there are quite a lot of false positives on smaller time intervals. As you can see, after a rather prolonged decline, the USD/CHF pair found support at 0.8756 and began to actively restore the losses incurred before. So far, it has not encountered the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, near which the black 89 exponential moving average and the strong technical level of 0.9375, which has long been displayed on the chart, are still located. And not in vain. It was here that the pair met strong resistance from sellers and at the time of writing the article, leaving a long shadow at the top, shows a downward trend.
At the same time, the characteristic point is that the body of the current candle is located inside the body of the previous large white one. If the trading week ends with the formation of such a candlestick analysis model, then it can be considered a reversal, and this will be a good signal for opening short positions on USD/CHF. A typical form of the “Shooting Star” model, but not with an upward price gap, but vice versa. Nevertheless, this does not make the strength of this model any less, in my personal opinion. Apparently, for the bulls on the pair, difficult times have come and their strength has come to an end. More definitely, this can be judged only by the actual end of the five-day trading period, however, it is unlikely that the technical picture will change dramatically in the remaining time. To do this, players who want to increase the exchange rate need to finish trading on March 8-12 with the formation of a bullish candle with a closing price above 0.9375. At the moment, it is hard to believe in such an outcome of trading, but everything happens in the market, so it is better to refrain from unambiguous conclusions right here and now.
Daily
On this timeframe, you should pay attention to the two previous candlesticks. I believe that they are quite specific about the current situation. The candle for March 9 has a rather large bearish body and completely lacks the lower shadow, which indicates the strength of bearish pressure. After that, the USD/CHF bulls tried to correct the situation, but a small candle with a long upper shadow tells us that they failed to do this. After that, today the pair shows a tendency to decline, which, taking into account the two above-mentioned candles, is quite natural. The continuation of the decline and the reversal of the current bullish trend will be signaled by successive breakdowns of the Tenkan red line and the strong technical level of 0.9160. However, the current downward trend can be considered a correction to the growth of 0.8870-0.9374. As you can see, now the pair is trying to go down only the first pullback level of 23.6 Fibo. Although if the quote briefly falls below the broken resistance of 0.9160, support can be obtained near 0.9150, where the strong orange 200 exponential moving average passes.
If a bullish pattern or candlestick analysis patterns appear in the area of 0.9150-0.9135, a buy signal will be received at this or smaller time intervals. In my subjective opinion, the final change of the upward trend to the downward trend will be indicated by the breakdown of not only the 200 EMA but also the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, as well as the 50th level of correction from the growth of 0.8870-0.9374. I believe that it is worth very carefully following the behavior of the price in the event of its decline in the area of 0.9180-0.9130. The signal for opening long positions will be the appearance of bullish candle signals on the daily, four-hour, and (or) hourly charts. Taking into account the decline that has already begun, it is better to look at sales if a candle or a combination of candles appears under the resistance level of 0.9321, which will signal the pair’s intentions to move in the south direction.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Although today is already Thursday and the current five-day period is inexorably nearing its end, I suggest starting the analysis of the dollar/franc currency pair with a weekly timeframe.
Weekly
As you can see, the consideration of the weekly schedule is not chosen in vain. During this period, important and significant events occur. In my articles, I constantly pay attention to the Ichimoku indicator, which I consider one of the most accurate for determining the price movement and receiving trading signals. However, in my opinion, this indicator is most effective on the weekly and daily timeframes, since there are quite a lot of false positives on smaller time intervals. As you can see, after a rather prolonged decline, the USD/CHF pair found support at 0.8756 and began to actively restore the losses incurred before. So far, it has not encountered the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, near which the black 89 exponential moving average and the strong technical level of 0.9375, which has long been displayed on the chart, are still located. And not in vain. It was here that the pair met strong resistance from sellers and at the time of writing the article, leaving a long shadow at the top, shows a downward trend.
At the same time, the characteristic point is that the body of the current candle is located inside the body of the previous large white one. If the trading week ends with the formation of such a candlestick analysis model, then it can be considered a reversal, and this will be a good signal for opening short positions on USD/CHF. A typical form of the “Shooting Star” model, but not with an upward price gap, but vice versa. Nevertheless, this does not make the strength of this model any less, in my personal opinion. Apparently, for the bulls on the pair, difficult times have come and their strength has come to an end. More definitely, this can be judged only by the actual end of the five-day trading period, however, it is unlikely that the technical picture will change dramatically in the remaining time. To do this, players who want to increase the exchange rate need to finish trading on March 8-12 with the formation of a bullish candle with a closing price above 0.9375. At the moment, it is hard to believe in such an outcome of trading, but everything happens in the market, so it is better to refrain from unambiguous conclusions right here and now.
Daily
On this timeframe, you should pay attention to the two previous candlesticks. I believe that they are quite specific about the current situation. The candle for March 9 has a rather large bearish body and completely lacks the lower shadow, which indicates the strength of bearish pressure. After that, the USD/CHF bulls tried to correct the situation, but a small candle with a long upper shadow tells us that they failed to do this. After that, today the pair shows a tendency to decline, which, taking into account the two above-mentioned candles, is quite natural. The continuation of the decline and the reversal of the current bullish trend will be signaled by successive breakdowns of the Tenkan red line and the strong technical level of 0.9160. However, the current downward trend can be considered a correction to the growth of 0.8870-0.9374. As you can see, now the pair is trying to go down only the first pullback level of 23.6 Fibo. Although if the quote briefly falls below the broken resistance of 0.9160, support can be obtained near 0.9150, where the strong orange 200 exponential moving average passes.
If a bullish pattern or candlestick analysis patterns appear in the area of 0.9150-0.9135, a buy signal will be received at this or smaller time intervals. In my subjective opinion, the final change of the upward trend to the downward trend will be indicated by the breakdown of not only the 200 EMA but also the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, as well as the 50th level of correction from the growth of 0.8870-0.9374. I believe that it is worth very carefully following the behavior of the price in the event of its decline in the area of 0.9180-0.9130. The signal for opening long positions will be the appearance of bullish candle signals on the daily, four-hour, and (or) hourly charts. Taking into account the decline that has already begun, it is better to look at sales if a candle or a combination of candles appears under the resistance level of 0.9321, which will signal the pair’s intentions to move in the south direction.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Related Posts: