AUD/USD dynamics scenarios on November 7, 2023
November 7, 2023 1:25 pmVideo
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During today’s Asian trading session, the Australian dollar significantly weakened, and the AUD/USD pair fell after the RBA’s decision on the interest rate and weak macroeconomic data from China were published. Following the November meeting, the RBA board members decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35%. However, the content of the accompanying statement was perceived by market participants as dovish, leading to a sharp decline in the Australian dollar immediately after the RBA’s decision was released.
AUD/USD dropped by 30 points and then continued to fall, reaching a level of 0.6426 as of this writing. The pair remains in the medium and long-term bearish territory, below key resistance levels at 0.6960 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.6575 (200 EMA on the daily chart).
A breakdown of the significant short-term support level at 0.6415 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal to resume short positions with the nearest target at the support level of 0.6392 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).
In the event of further decline, the pair will head inside the downward channel on the weekly chart towards its lower boundary and levels of 0.6200 and 0.6170 (2022 lows).
In an alternative scenario, a rebound will occur from the support levels of 0.6415 and 0.6400, and AUD/USD will resume its upward correction, heading towards the important medium-term resistance level at 0.6525 (144 EMA on the daily chart).
The targets for further growth are the resistance levels of 0.6575 (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 0.6610 (50 EMA on the weekly chart). A breakout of these levels will move AUD/USD into the medium-term bullish territory.
For now, short positions remain preferable. Only a breakout of the key resistance levels at 0.6960 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.7040 (38.2% Fibonacci level of the correction wave from 0.9500 to 0.5510) will move AUD/USD into the long-term bullish territory.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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