You are here: Home > articles > Elliott Wave > (Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market
(Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market
July 15, 2014 1:57 pmVideo
Latest News
- Technical Analysis – BTCUSD drops to 6-week low as halving looms April 18, 2024
- Midweek Technical Look – EURUSD, US 500, WTI April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – AUDJPY pulls back but stays in uptrend April 18, 2024
- Forex forecast 04/18/2024: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga April 18, 2024
- Video market update for April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures exit sideways move to the downside April 18, 2024
- Market Comment – US dollar on the back foot as nervousness lingers in equity markets April 18, 2024
- Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 18 April 18, 2024
- Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners April 18, 2024
- Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners April 18, 2024
- The Fed and global instability: a double blow to American markets April 18, 2024
- Forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Forecast for GBP/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Forecast for AUD/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Outlook for GBP/USD on April 18. Pound was not impressed by the inflation data April 18, 2024
- Outlook for EUR/USD on April 18. Euro has fallen into a new flat April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD. Correction or trend reversal? April 18, 2024
- The FOMC will not lower rates in 2024 April 18, 2024
- Powell made a bold point, and Bailey did not report anything important April 18, 2024
Editor’s note: The article below is adapted from the transcript of the live presentation above, originally recorded at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show. It features Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg. Hochberg is co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, one of EWI’s flasgship market letters. Click here for a free excerpt from Hochberg’s latest issue.
This chart is a picture of retail money market funds as a percentage of market capitalization.
In other words, when people are super bullish, they don’t want to hold any money in money market funds. They want to invest it, right?
Because why hold money aside when you don’t think the market’s going down, when it can be in the market if you think it’s going up?
When people are super bearish, what do they do? They take money out of the market, and they put it into money market funds hoping to wait out what they view as a declining market.
Now look at the upward spikes in this chart.
You can see that there was a high percentage of money in money market funds as a percentage of market cap back in 1982 as the market was bottoming and starting that great bull market.
Shortly after the 1987 crash, people got really scared; and again in 2002 after the market had been down 38%, and also in 2009 after the market declined 58%.
We are now at a new all-time low in the percentage of retail money market funds relative of market cap at just 2.8%. In other words, people are fully invested.
Investors are so optimistic about the future, they see no reason to keep money in money market funds in case the market goes down.
This is a classic warning sign that a reversal is ahead.
Related Posts: