Australian Dollar: ‘Still Surging’ — Why, Again?
July 23, 2012 4:21 pmVideo
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Picture this. It’s late May. You’re in Australia. You have an interest in the currency markets: Maybe you speculate in forex; maybe your business depends on the exchange rates.
Every morning, you scan the headlines. This is what you see regarding the Australian dollar during the last week of May:
Even after a strong rebound the AUD saw on May 28 and 29, you read that “analysts don’t see [the] improvement lasting too long unless the global economic backdrop improves.” You sit down to make some decisions in preparation for an even weaker Aussie, and…
…and now, six weeks later, the AUD is orbiting the moon. Yes,
between June 1 and today, against the U.S. dollar the
Aussie dollar shot up from near $0.96 to over $1.04,
despite all the “bad fundamentals” from late May.
This is a story we’ve seen repeated in the forex markets again
and again: Right when everyone accepts the trend (bullish
or bearish) as “the new normal,” the trend reverses.
We are proud to say that we don’t follow the herd off the cliff each time they head that way — because we have the right forecasting tools. On June 1, our Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens published this bullish AUD/USD forecast (excerpt; some Elliott wave labels have been erased for this article):
This bullish forecast was based strictly on the Elliott wave picture in AUD/USD charts. Jim simply saw that the pair had reached the bottom trendline of the likely “triangle” Elliott wave pattern, so a strong rebound was due in the next wave of the pattern.
Today, after 6 weeks of rally, the AUD is “still surging,” as it has become “an attractive investment.” But you already know how rapidly this tune will change once the trend reverses.
Jim Martens has the near- and long-term AUD/USD price targets inside his Currency Specialty Service for you right now.
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