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Crude oil: Mathematical Analysis with Murray Lines for January 14, 2014
January 15, 2014 5:45 amVideo
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В Fundamental analysis
Futures on light crude oil rebounded this Tuesday in the United States following the losses in the previous day, waiting for data on key weekly supply of the United States determine the intensity of the demand for oil from the largest consumer of black gold of the world.
However, amid the fundamental aspect the crude oil futures are under selling pressue: overnight, Brent came close to the two-month low of $106 per barrel that it reached last Friday, while WTI was trading at $91.5 per barrel, which is only just above the eight-month low it hit in the middle of last week. Besides a gloomier demand outlook in the wake of poor US labor market data, growing supply is weighing on prices. Libya, for instance, has been able to increase its oil production to 600-650 thousand barrels per day, which is more than twice bigger than in December.
What is more, the problems at the Buzzard oil field have been resolved – last week, they had resulted in production outages in the North Sea. Forties oil, the most important oil type in the Brent basket, is produced at the Buzzard oil field. Nexen, the operator of the oil field, expects oil production to normalize in the coming days. Furthermore, North Sea supply looks set to grow further next month. According to Reuters, the productionof 12 key British and Norwegian oil types will inch up by 1% in February to 2.027 million barrels per day.
The supply of Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk – four oil types that make up the Brent basket, is even expected to increase by 6% in February, to 986 thousand barrels per day. This will be partly due to shipments being delayed until February. Crude oil stocks in the US are expected to grow for the first time in seven weeks.
The API will be publishing the figures for last week after the close of trading today, and the US Department of Energy will release a roport tomorrow afternoon. Adding to this, selling on the part of speculative financial investors, who reduced their net long positions in Brent last week by 29%. Against this news backdrop, oil prices are likely to continue falling for the time being.
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