IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/03/2017
March 6, 2017 3:58 pmVideo
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• Yellen confirms a March rate hike, but the dollar drifts lower
• Yellen was as hawkish as her colleagues. Said that if inflation and employment continue to evolve as exp., then a March hike is appropriate.
• Probability for a March hike surged to 80%. However, USD drifted lower.
• Perhaps as investors locked in profit on their USD-long positions (buy the rumor, sell the fact).
• USD likely to remain supported moving forward. Focus now turns to Friday’s jobs report.
• Today:
• US: Factory orders for Jan. but usually not a major market mover.
• Speakers: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
• As for the rest of the week:
• Tue: RBA policy gathering. We exp. the Bank to remain on hold, and maintain a neutral tone overall (mixed data, elevated iron ore prices). Something like that could support AUD.
• Wed: China trade data for Feb. and US ADP employment change for Feb.
• Thu: ECB rate decision. This may be more or less a repetition of the prev. gathering. Draghi likely to remain dovish. Could prove EUR-negative, but such reaction may be only modest.
• Frid: US employment report for Feb. NFP is exp. 180k, unempl. rate to decline, avg. hourly earnings to accelerate. Focus will be mainly on earnings. If they accel. as exp. USD could gain. Also, Canada’s jobs data and Norway’s CPI, both for Feb.
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