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If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This

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A well-known business magazine recently published a story with this headline:

Stocks: The "Loss" Decade
A disastrous ten years for the stock market ends in just a month. Will the turning of a new decade change investors' luck?

One sentence from the story itself tells you most of what you need to know: "The ten years since Y2K are on track to produce the worst total returns for investors since the 1930s."

Featured Commentary

Publishing Date

The major stock indexes are the wrong place to look December 4, 2009 By Robert Folsom

About The Publisher

Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered politics, popular culture, economics and the financial markets for two decades, via print, radio and the Internet. Robert earned his degree in political science from Columbia University in 1985.

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Of course, no one should really be surprised by a story that says the stock indexes did poorly over the past decade. That's not news. The facts in the article more or less repeat what our own Elliott Wave Financial Forecast reported last March, complete with this chart:

The proof of the market is in its charts. Professional market technicians know something you don't. A solid grasp of the most successful technical analysis methods can help you cut through the hype and give you the big-picture, unbiased perspective you need now more than ever. You can now download a FREE 50-page Technical Analysis Handbook from the largest independent technical analysis provider in the world. Learn more about technical analysis, and download your free 50-page ebook here.

S&P Chart

It's safe to say that this business magazine article is the first of many the media will run before the year's end, as part of their "decade wrap-up" stories. And like this story, most or all those like will share the same basic assumption: stock investors did poorly because the stock indexes did poorly.

And that assumption, dear reader, is erroneous. The truth is far uglier.

Here's what I mean. If you want to know how real stock investors really behave, the major stock indexes are the wrong place to look. Published results from firms like Dalbar and Vanguard consistently show that, over the past 25 years, individual investors and mutual fund shareholders have had average returns that are half (at best) of the annual returns of the broader stock market.

So, for example, in 20 years from Jan. 1, 1989 through Dec. 31, 2008, the S&P 500 showed a 8.35% gain (Dalbar). Over that same period, equity investors showed a 1.87% gain. And if you include the 2.89% inflation rate in those years, investors show a 1.02% loss.

You can shift to a timeframe which excludes the bear market that started in 2007, but it doesn't change the basic story. From January 1984 though December 2002, the Dalbar data shows that equity investors earned an annual average of 2.6%, vs. the S&P 500's 12.2% annual average. The annual inflation rate for period was 3.14%.

What's more, similar studies and surveys also show that most investors are overconfident in the decisions they make. Put another way, they don't even know that they are their own worst enemy.

It can be different for you. Market prices move in recognizable patterns: Those patterns can also reveal specific price levels that help confirm the direction of the trend, or identify the time to step aside. Respecting the price, pattern and trend is the first step toward discipline, instead of yielding to emotions.

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Some charts were no longer displaying correctly, this issue is now fixed [ more ]

Merry Christmas

Trade financial markets with fixed odds betting, and get a £20 Free Bet to try! (Click on Banner to go to BetonMarkets.com) [ more ]

08/09/2011 - Bull Market In Gold Over With Double Top?

A few weeks ago I penned a public article and private forecast for my subscribers calling for a major correction in Gold being due. 72 hours after my forecast, Gold [ more ]

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If "legendary Wall Street figure" ever described anyone, it was turn-of-the-last-century financier J.P. Morgan. You can throw in "bigger than life&quo [ more ]

27/08/2011 - Behind Closed Doors at the Fed: Ten Years o

During the past few years, The Federal Reserve has engaged in a "deliberate inflating policy." This policy [ more ]

29/08/2011 - What Could Lie Ahead for the S&P 500 &

Now that Mr. Bernanke’s speech is old news, what was the financial media thinking exactly? A significant number of financial writers have been anticipating discuss [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Gold - Is It the Only Safe Haven Investment

With the economy so sour right now, investors seem to be selling out of the market and looking for other areas which have a safe haven status right now. Gold has been a [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Gold & Stocks Are About To Move in Opposite

The past few weeks traders and investors have been completely spooked from the surge of negative news and collapsing stock prices. This fear can be seen by looking at t [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Successful Investing Starts With Research

Since 2008, the world has faced serious problems. The credit crisis, debt crisis and the U.S. economy right now are all playing havoc with the livelihoods if of America [ more ]

Free Live Charts, Daily Data, Articles and Trading Resources For World Financial Markets

Live charts for major trading instruments updating from 10seconds to 1 week period!

You can check world indices in these volatile financial times here.

welcome to the best source of free market information. T [ more ]

iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund

iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund is traded on the American Stock Exchange. The information on this page is for information only and is delayed publication data on this share, none of the information on this page is intended as investment advice of any kind. [ more ]

DAX Live Chart / Dax Real zeit diagramm

The DAX (Deutscher Aktien IndeX, formerly Deutscher Aktien-Index (German stock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading [ more ]

FTSE 100 Live Chart (FTSE 100 Price Quote)

FREE Live FTSE 100 Chart. The FTSE 100 share index is a stock market index made up of the 100 largest UK registered companies in terms of their market capitalisation. Free FTSE 100 live price char [ more ]

Dow Jones Live Chart

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) index, which reflects the movement of the world's first stock market. It is composed of the 32 most traded stocks of the NYSE. Currently there are three more [ more ]

UK Shares Live Charts

Live charts for popular UK FTSE shares including Barclays, Lloyds TSB, BP, Supermarkets. Soon historical data for all london shares! [ more ]

HSBC Bank Live Chart

Headquartered in London, HSBC is one of the largest banking and financial services organisations in the world. HSBC's international network comprises around 8,500 offices in 86 countries and te [ more ]

BEI-96/16 ZC

BEI-96/16 ZC is traded on the London Stock Exchange. The information on this page is for information only and is delayed publication data on this share, none of the information on this page is intended as investment advice of any kind. [ more ]