When you’re caught in the middle of a bad storm, you don’t really care whether it’s a tropical depression or a full-strength hurricane. You just know you’re hanging on for dear life. The same idea applies to financial markets. When a market is trending up strongly, it’s hard to tell whether it’s just a bull market or a more dangerous financial mania.
The recent tremendous ride up for global and U.S. financial markets, including the Dow, looks and feels more like a mania than a mere bull, says Elliott Wave International analyst Peter Kendall. This distinction is important to recognize in the rising stage, because manias always result in a crash that takes them back beneath their starting point.
Kendall recently published his research into current financial manias throughout the world in SFO (Stocks, Futures and Options) magazine. The article, titled “Financial Manias and the Trade of a Lifetime,” suggests an even more stunning finish for the current manias: “The speed and global scope of the unfolding credit crisis suggest that most of the fast-rising markets of the last decade will crash in unison,” he writes.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.
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