Part 4: Bollinger Bands

Normally, we use the 20-Day simple moving average and its standard deviations to create Bollinger Bands. Strategies some investors use include shorter- or longer-term Bollinger Bands depending on their needs. Shorter-term Bollinger Bands strategies (less than 20-Days) are more sensitive to price fluctuations, while longer-term Bollinger Bands (more than 20-Days) are more conservative.

So how do we use the Bollinger Band theory?

The Bollinger Band theory will not indicate exactly which point to buy or sell an option or stock. It is meant to be used as a guide (or band) with which to gauge a stock's volatility.

When a stock's price is very volatile, the Bollinger Bands will be far apart. In technical indicator charts, this is depicted like a widening gap. On the other hand, when there is little price fluctuation, hence low volatility, the Bollinger Bands will be in a tight range. This is depicted as narrow "lanes" along the chart.

As for how we use the Bollinger Band theory, here are a couple of guidelines.

History shows that a stock usually doesn't stay in a narrow trading range for long, as can be gauged using the Bollinger Bands. Strategies include relating the width with the length of the bands. The narrower the bands, the shorter the time it will last. Therefore, when a stock starts to trade within narrow Bollinger Bands, we know that there will be a substantial price fluctuation in the near future. However, we do not know which direction the stock will move, hence the need to use Bollinger Bands strategies together with other technical indicators.

When the stock starts to become very volatile, it is depicted in the chart by the actual stock price "hugging" or staying very close to either the upper or lower Bollinger Bands, with the Bands widening substantially. The wider the Bands are, the more volatile the price is, and the more likely the price will fall back towards the moving average.

When the actual stock price moves away from the Bands back towards the moving average, it can be taken as a signal that the price trend has slowed, and will move back towards the moving average. However, it is common for the price to bounce off the Bands a second time before a confirmed move towards the moving average.

As usual, and for the Bollinger Band theory in particular, it should be noted that individual indicators should not be used on their own, but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types, in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms.

Merry Christmas

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