IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 10/04/2017

US NFP disappoints, but the rest of the report is solid • NFP for March came 98k, far below the consensus of 180k. USD weakened on the news. • However, the rest of the report was decent, with the unemployment rate dropping notably. • Thus, USD quickly reversed its losses to trade higher against its […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/04/2017

Investors lock their gaze on the US jobs report • Nonfarm payrolls are expected 180k (12:30 GMT). The ADP report was very strong, so we could see a higher-than-anticipated NFP number too. • The unemployment rate and earnings growth are both expected unchanged. • Overall this looks like another strong report, that could increase speculation […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/04/2017

FOMC minutes: Balance sheet reduction is on the horizon • The minutes showed that policymakers are considering how, when, and at what speed they should start reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. • Probably later this year, and with a clearly communicated plan to avoid financial instability. • USD reaction was volatile, rose initially but then […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/04/2017

RBA remains on hold, but tilts somewhat dovish • The RBA remained on hold. The meeting statement had a somewhat dovish tone compared to the previous one. • The Bank highlighted that labor market indicators have softened recently. • AUD fell on the news, and may stay under selling interest for a while on this […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/04/2017

RBA to remain on hold and maintain a neutral tone • The RBA will announce its decision during the Asian morning Tuesday. It’s expected to stand pat. • We share this view, and we expect the officials to maintain their overall neutral tone. • However, given the worse data lately, if there is a change […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 31/03/2017

USD extends its recent gains • The US dollar rose yesterday. Likely reasons: Upbeat comments from Fed’s Dudley (voter) and an upward revision in GDP for Q4 2016. • Dudley said that the risks for both growth and inflation may be gradually shifting to the upside. • The market may have paid extra attention to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 30/03/2017

Reuters sources: ECB March signals were over-interpreted • EUR tumbled yesterday, after a report that the ECB only wanted to communicated reduced risks in March, not a step towards less stimulus. • Also, the Bank is cautious to change its language in April, as it may be over-interpreted again. • This shifts the near-term outlook […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/03/2017

Sterling gets battered as PM May signs Brexit letter • GBP collapsed yest. PM May signed the official letter to trigger Article 50 and leave the EU. • Other possible reasons: Scottish Parliament voting for a 2nd independence referendum and cautious comments from BoE’s McCafferty (hawk). • Today, watch out for remarks from PM May […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 28/03/2017

ECB policymakers provide more “hawkish” hints • EUR/USD rose further yest., amid “hawkish” remarks from ECB’s Lautenschlager and Weidman. • Both hinted the ECB may have to change policy, as soon as the data support something like that. • Even though these are far from clear signals that the Bank may actually change its policy, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 27/03/2017

USD slips as Trump fails to reform health care • Republicans decided to withdraw the bill on Friday (no vote), as they lacked the needed votes. • Even though Trump reassured investors he will now focus on tax reform, USD opened with a negative gap this week. • USD may stay on the back foot […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/03/2017

US health care vote postponed to today; Trump raises the stakes • Republicans decided to postpone the vote for today, as they lacked the support needed. • But Trump stepped in. He said that if he loses the vote today, he is prepared to leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform. • […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/03/2017

Trump’s first Congressional test: The American Healthcare Act • Today, Congress is expected to vote on repealing and replacing ‘Obamacare’ with ‘Trumpcare’. • Will be closely watched as a test of whether the new administration can deliver on its promises. • A rejection could raise questions on whether tax reform is likely to encounter such […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/03/2017

RBNZ set to remain on hold, likely to retain a cautious tone • RBNZ is widely exp. to stand pat. Market action may come from the tone of the statement. • Latest statement was cautious, highlighted trade risks and the stronger NZD as being a problem. • We exp. this statement to be similar to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 21/03/2017

Macron seen as the winner of the first French debate • According to a snap poll towards the end of the debate, Macron was the most convincing. • Second was Mélenchon, with Fillon and Le Pen tied for third place. • EUR rose after the debate, as this may have diminished Le Pen’s chances to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 20/03/2017

Euro traders turn their gaze to French polls; Debates kick off today • EUR tumbled on Fri., after a new French election poll showed Le Pen recovering ground. • Today, we have the first televised debate between the top 5 candidates. • A strong showing by Le Pen could prove EUR-negative. • A more moderate […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 17/03/2017

Euro surges again as ECB’s Nowotny hints at rate hikes • He didn’t say anything about a timeline, and his comments just referred to how rates could be raised once normalization begins. • Still, just his discussion of rate hikes was enough to trigger another surge in the euro. • Outlook for EUR/USD remains positive […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 16/03/2017

FOMC delivers a hike, but offers no hawkish hints • FOMC hiked rates as expected. However, the signals about the rate path were not hawkish. • “Dot plot” was left unchanged, Chair Yellen was quite cautious in her press conference. • Key message: this hike doesn’t reflect increased optimism, and doesn’t imply faster future hikes. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 15/03/2017

FOMC decision: Signals on the rate path to drive the dollar • Besides the rate decision, this meeting will include updated forecasts and a press conf. by Yellen. • Widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps (90% prob.). Thus, market action will probably come from the updated signals on the rate path (“dot plot”). […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 13/03/2017

US employment data cement a March hike • NFP came 235k in Feb., more than the exp. 190k. The unemployment rate ticked down. • Avg. hourly earnings missed their forecast slightly. As a result, reaction in USD was negative, perhaps on some profit-taking of USD-long positions. • However, earnings were not soft enough to derail […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/03/2017

Will the US jobs report seal the deal for a March hike? • NFP for Feb. are exp. 190k vs 227k prev. We see upside risks to the forecast (ADP 297k). • Unemployment rate is exp. to tick down, average hourly earnings to accelerate. • Initial reaction in USD likely to be on NFP print […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/03/2017

ECB set to stand pat; Draghi likely to repeat previous mantra • ECB is widely exp. to stand pat. Focus will be on Draghi’s press conf. for fresh signals on policy. • Likely to remain dovish and repeat previous comments that he sees no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. • This could prove EUR-negative, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/03/2017

UK PM May suffers defeat in House of Lords; Spring Budget in focus • Yesterday, the House of Lords voted for an amendment to the Brexit bill that gives Parliament a “meaningful vote” on the final exit deal. • Essentially gives lawmakers a veto over the final deal (and allows them to send the gov. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/03/2017

• RBA remains on hold; maintains its neutral bias • RBA maintained a neutral bias. Reiterated that further easing could amplify financ. stability risks. • Likely to remain on hold for a while. Reaction in AUD was limited (little new information!). • Outlook for AUD is cautiously optimistic. But would avoid AUD/USD (hawkish Fed, strong […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/03/2017

• Yellen confirms a March rate hike, but the dollar drifts lower • Yellen was as hawkish as her colleagues. Said that if inflation and employment continue to evolve as exp., then a March hike is appropriate. • Probability for a March hike surged to 80%. However, USD drifted lower. • Perhaps as investors locked […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/03/2017

• Fed’s Powell adds to the hawkish chorus; Yellen & Fischer in focus • Fed’s Powell (perm. voter) said overnight that a March hike will be seriously considered. • Today, Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer speak. Their comments will probably determine USD’s near-term direction. • We see the risks surrounding dollar’s reaction today […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/03/2017

USD surges after a salvo of FOMC and Trump remarks • USD rally was sparked by comments from NY Fed Pres. Dudley, saying the case for a rate hike has become “a lot more compelling”. • Probability for a March hike surged as a result, though we still think that an unlikely scenario. • Trump’s […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 28/02/2017

Trump to announce something “bigly” on infrastructure? • Unlikely to say much about taxes. But he’s going to announce something “big” on infrastructure. • Some clarity on the potential size and/or timeline of any massive infrastructure plan, could bring USD under renewed buying interest (equities too). • However, a more vague speech, with no clear […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 27/02/2017

Sterling tumbles on Brexit-related reports • GBP slid during the Asian morning Monday, following reports over the weekend regarding a second Scottish independence referendum. • According these articles, Theresa May could agree to a second vote, but on condition it is held after the UK exits the EU. • Given these concerns, and reports regarding […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/02/2017

Investors turn their attention to Canada • Canada’s CPI for January is due out. Headline rate is exp. to tick up, no forecast for the core rate. • Markit. Manuf. PMI for Jan. showed fastest increase in prices since 2014. As such, we expect both rates to rise. • Given the rapid increase in the […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/02/2017

FOMC minutes show little urgency for a March hike • A hike might be appropriate “fairly soon”. But, there is only a modest risk of inflation pressures increasing significantly. Fed would have “ample time” to respond if inflation emerged. • They saw downside risks associated with further appreciation of USD. • Uncertainty over Trump’s policies […]

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