• IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 20/03/2017

    Euro traders turn their gaze to French polls; Debates kick off today • EUR tumbled on Fri., after a new French election poll showed Le Pen recovering ground. • Today, we have the first televised debate between the top 5 candidates. • A strong showing by Le Pen could prove EUR-negative. • A more moderate […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 17/03/2017

    Euro surges again as ECB’s Nowotny hints at rate hikes • He didn’t say anything about a timeline, and his comments just referred to how rates could be raised once normalization begins. • Still, just his discussion of rate hikes was enough to trigger another surge in the euro. • Outlook for EUR/USD remains positive […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 16/03/2017

    FOMC delivers a hike, but offers no hawkish hints • FOMC hiked rates as expected. However, the signals about the rate path were not hawkish. • “Dot plot” was left unchanged, Chair Yellen was quite cautious in her press conference. • Key message: this hike doesn’t reflect increased optimism, and doesn’t imply faster future hikes. […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 15/03/2017

    FOMC decision: Signals on the rate path to drive the dollar • Besides the rate decision, this meeting will include updated forecasts and a press conf. by Yellen. • Widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps (90% prob.). Thus, market action will probably come from the updated signals on the rate path (“dot plot”). […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 13/03/2017

    US employment data cement a March hike • NFP came 235k in Feb., more than the exp. 190k. The unemployment rate ticked down. • Avg. hourly earnings missed their forecast slightly. As a result, reaction in USD was negative, perhaps on some profit-taking of USD-long positions. • However, earnings were not soft enough to derail […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/03/2017

    Will the US jobs report seal the deal for a March hike? • NFP for Feb. are exp. 190k vs 227k prev. We see upside risks to the forecast (ADP 297k). • Unemployment rate is exp. to tick down, average hourly earnings to accelerate. • Initial reaction in USD likely to be on NFP print […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/03/2017

    ECB set to stand pat; Draghi likely to repeat previous mantra • ECB is widely exp. to stand pat. Focus will be on Draghi’s press conf. for fresh signals on policy. • Likely to remain dovish and repeat previous comments that he sees no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. • This could prove EUR-negative, […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/03/2017

    UK PM May suffers defeat in House of Lords; Spring Budget in focus • Yesterday, the House of Lords voted for an amendment to the Brexit bill that gives Parliament a “meaningful vote” on the final exit deal. • Essentially gives lawmakers a veto over the final deal (and allows them to send the gov. […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/03/2017

    • RBA remains on hold; maintains its neutral bias • RBA maintained a neutral bias. Reiterated that further easing could amplify financ. stability risks. • Likely to remain on hold for a while. Reaction in AUD was limited (little new information!). • Outlook for AUD is cautiously optimistic. But would avoid AUD/USD (hawkish Fed, strong […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/03/2017

    • Yellen confirms a March rate hike, but the dollar drifts lower • Yellen was as hawkish as her colleagues. Said that if inflation and employment continue to evolve as exp., then a March hike is appropriate. • Probability for a March hike surged to 80%. However, USD drifted lower. • Perhaps as investors locked […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/03/2017

    • Fed’s Powell adds to the hawkish chorus; Yellen & Fischer in focus • Fed’s Powell (perm. voter) said overnight that a March hike will be seriously considered. • Today, Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer speak. Their comments will probably determine USD’s near-term direction. • We see the risks surrounding dollar’s reaction today […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/03/2017

    USD surges after a salvo of FOMC and Trump remarks • USD rally was sparked by comments from NY Fed Pres. Dudley, saying the case for a rate hike has become “a lot more compelling”. • Probability for a March hike surged as a result, though we still think that an unlikely scenario. • Trump’s […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 28/02/2017

    Trump to announce something “bigly” on infrastructure? • Unlikely to say much about taxes. But he’s going to announce something “big” on infrastructure. • Some clarity on the potential size and/or timeline of any massive infrastructure plan, could bring USD under renewed buying interest (equities too). • However, a more vague speech, with no clear […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 27/02/2017

    Sterling tumbles on Brexit-related reports • GBP slid during the Asian morning Monday, following reports over the weekend regarding a second Scottish independence referendum. • According these articles, Theresa May could agree to a second vote, but on condition it is held after the UK exits the EU. • Given these concerns, and reports regarding […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/02/2017

    Investors turn their attention to Canada • Canada’s CPI for January is due out. Headline rate is exp. to tick up, no forecast for the core rate. • Markit. Manuf. PMI for Jan. showed fastest increase in prices since 2014. As such, we expect both rates to rise. • Given the rapid increase in the […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/02/2017

    FOMC minutes show little urgency for a March hike • A hike might be appropriate “fairly soon”. But, there is only a modest risk of inflation pressures increasing significantly. Fed would have “ample time” to respond if inflation emerged. • They saw downside risks associated with further appreciation of USD. • Uncertainty over Trump’s policies […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/02/2017

    FOMC February minutes: More optimistic signals? • Yellen was quite upbeat in her testimonies last week. Minutes may reflect a similar tone. • If so, the probability for a near-term rate hike could rise (March?), which may bring USD under renewed buying interest. • But we stick to our view that the Fed is unlikely […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 20/02/2017

    House of Lords set to debate Article 50 bill • Expected to pass the bill without any amendments. Thus, Brexit is still set to be triggered in Mar. • Still headed for a “hard Brexit” (UK wants control of immigration, EU won’t give full access to single market in that case). • Investors may begin […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 17/02/2017

    ECB minutes confirm there’s wide support for loose policy • ECB minutes from the Jan. meeting confirmed much of what Draghi told us at the press conf. • Very little appetite among officials for tapering anytime soon. Also, focus will be on the core CPI. • Confirms our view the ECB may remain on hold […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 16/02/2017

    USD gains on solid economic data, but only briefly • USD gained yest. after almost all data releases beat their forecasts (CPI & retail sales). • But the reaction was short-lived. Gave back all the gains to trade lower in the following hours. • Yellen didn’t say anything new. USD correction lower may have been […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 15/02/2017

    Yellen puts a March hike on the table; USD flies again • Maintained a confident tone on the economy & the prospect of near-term rate hikes. • Her comments implied that investors shouldn’t rule out a March hike. The dollar surged. • Despite her signals, we maintain the view that the most likely time for […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 14/02/2017

    Dollar consolidates ahead of Yellen’s Congressional testimony • Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing & Urban affairs. • Market action will come from her view on the economy and whether she is seen as likely to vote in favor of a hike in the near-term. • She was quite […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 13/02/2017

    USD starts the week higher in the aftermath of Trump-Abe meeting • USD opened the week with a positive gap and traded higher in early Asian trading (esp. vs JPY). • May be due to the Trump-Abe meeting ending on a positive note. No comments on currency manipulation or trade policy. • Also, investors may […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/02/2017

    Trump announces he will announce something on taxes • USD and US equities soared yest., after Pres. Trump pledged to announce a “phenomenal” plan on tax reform in the next 2-3 weeks. • He briefly hinted at measures aimed at reducing taxes for businesses, but nothing specific. • As his tax policy is back in […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/02/2017

    RBNZ retains easing bias, smacks down the Kiwi • RBNZ remained on hold as exp. Surprisingly, the Bank retained its easing bias (despite the material improvement in domestic data). • “Uncertainties persist, particularly in the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust”. • Also reiterated that a decline in NZD is needed. Possibly due […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/02/2017

    RBNZ likely to stand pat and shift to a more upbeat bias • RBNZ is exp. to take no action. Focus will be on the statement, and Gov. Wheeler’s press conf. • Data have improved since the Nov. meeting. CPI rate for Q4 and 2-year infl. exp. both surged. • As such, the statement may […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/02/2017

    RBA keeps rates on hold; maintains a confident tone • RBA remained on hold. The officials were surprisingly optimistic with regards to economic data. • They signalled that although GDP was negative in Q3, that was temporary. They also downplayed the rather soft Q4 CPIs. • Overall, the RBA remains neutral, and in our view […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/02/2017

    NFP preview: Upside surprise on the cards? • US NFP is exp. 175k in Jan., higher than 156k in Dec. We see upside risks to the forecast (ADP was 246k and other job indicators were solid). • Unempl. rate to remain unchanged, avg. hourly earnings to slow, but only slightly. • Despite a minor slowdown […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 02/02/2017

    BoE likely to remain neutral on “Super Thursday” • This is one of the “big” meetings. Besides the rate decision, we get updated economic forecasts and a press conf. by Gov. Carney. • Focus may be on inflation. Specifically, on the BoE’s tolerance to “look through” above-target CPI. • We expect a neutral stance overall, […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/02/2017

    FOMC decision: Optimistic signals? • The Committee is widely expected to take no action. Focus will be on language of the statement. • Economic data have improved further since the Dec. hike (inflation & wages accelerated). • Thus, we think it’s likely the FOMC appears upbeat overall, thereby setting the stage for a near-term rate […]

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