IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 11/04/2016

Oil soars as US rigs continue to decrease • WTI opened higher on Monday as the number of active US oil rigs continued to fall. • Further declines in rig count or inventories may keep prices supported in the short-term. • Focus remains on Apr. 17th meeting, where investors are skeptical of any freeze deal. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/04/2016

Is the scenario of a BoJ currency intervention likely? • JPY has appreciated significantly vs its major counterparts recently. • PM Abe said that nations should refrain from interventions in FX markets. • But other officials said the gov. will take steps if needed to counter one-sided currency moves. • Market chatter is that it […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/04/2016

Fed minutes: FOMC divided, cautious on rate hikes • March minutes showed division among the FOMC, with some officials calling for an April hike given the strength of US data. • Others felt that an April hike may signal an inappropriate sense of urgency. • Heightened risks from abroad the primary reason for being cautious. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/04/2016

China’s data soothe concerns of further slowdown • China’s Caixin services PMI for Mar. rose, following increases in the manufacturing PMIs. • These may be early signs that the global turmoil at the turn of the year may have eased somewhat. • Focus now turns to a plethora of Chinese data due out next week. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 05/04/2016

RBA on hold, Aussie rises • The RBA remained on hold, but reiterated further easing may be needed. • Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy. • AUD/USD rose as the Bank did not clearly call for a weaker currency. • This disappointed investors who anticipated a strong currency talk down. • The […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/04/2016

Solid US jobs data fall short of changing Fed rate path views • NFP rose 215k, hourly earnings accelerated, but the unemployment rate rose. • The increase in the unemployment rate was due to more people entering the labor force. • Fed’s Yellen already said that the labor market is strong and the focus is […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/04/2016

US employment report takes center stage • Nonfarm payrolls exp. 205k vs prev. 242k, unemployment rate to remain unchanged, average hourly earnings to rise. • Initial reaction on USD is mainly on the NFP figure, then the focus shifts on earnings. • A solid report is needed for the dollar to recover some of its […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 31/03/2016

Oil erases its latest gains • WTI slid yesterday after a US report suggested that the supply glut may be prolonged. • Report showed 7th consecutive week of rising inventories and a notable rise in refinery utilization. • Major producers meeting in Qatar on the 17th of April to discuss output freeze. • Speculation of […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 30/03/2016

Dollar slides on “cautious” Yellen • The Fed Chair struck a “dovish” tone in her remarks yesterday. • Higher external risk factors like slower global growth was a reason the FOMC revised down its policy path. • Her emphasis on risks was in contrast to recent remarks by other Fed speakers, which caused USD to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/03/2016

Fed Chair to address Economic Club of NY • Recent Fed speakers have been quite optimistic about near-term rate hikes. • If she changes tone and sounds more upbeat as well, this could support USD. • A neutral stance may disappoint some investors expecting her to be optimistic and prove USD-negative. Japanese government eyes fiscal […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 28/03/2016

Upward GDP revision keeps USD supported • An upward revision in final US Q4 GDP kept USD supported on Friday. • Stronger consumer spending, but falling corporate profits and investment. • Nevertheless, we will treat this data as outdated given the volatile start of 2016. Today: • US: Personal income and spending, for Feb. Both […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 25/03/2016

Atlanta Fed revises down US Q1 GDP forecast • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow, a closely watched tracker of US growth, revised down its GDP forecast for Q1. • This may be a first sign that the global turmoil has left its marks on US economy. • Further softness in incoming data could push rate hike […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/03/2016

Dollar rises on more “hawkish” Fed talk • USD rose further after Fed’s Bullard reaffirmed that every meeting is a live meeting. • Fed speakers may be trying to convince investors that 2 rates hikes are realistic. Markets currently expect only 1. • USD may gain further on more hawkish Fed-talk. Chair Yellen speaks next […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/03/2016

Brussels attacks weigh on the market • Following the attacks, EUR and European equities tumbled. JPY gained. • European equities and JPY recovered, but EUR remained lower. • This could affect consumer confidence or risk sentiment. Further weakness in EUR and European equities is possible. Canada’s budget lives up to expectations • Canada’s new budget […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/03/2016

Fed officials strike a hawkish tone • Fed Presidents Lockhart and Williams said that rate hikes may be justified at the upcoming meetings. • They are non-voting members, so their opinions had little impact in the markets. • But if more speakers strike a similar tone, expectations for a near-term hike could build up, which […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 21/03/2016

Chinese equities rally on looser lending • Shanghai Composite 300 is up 2.4%, after policymakers announced looser standards on margin lending (borrowing money to buy shares). • The move seems to support a bit China’s markets and eases concerns of further slowdown. • However, other Asian markets are subdued, which make us to stay cautious […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 18/03/2016

BoE: “Brexit” uncertainty may hit growth • The BoE remained on hold, but noted some effects of the uncertainty surrounding the “Brexit” referendum. • This uncertainty could depress economic growth and may be the driver behind GBP’s recent depreciation. • However, GBP strengthened as the officials did not mention a possible rate cut. BoJ debated […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 17/03/2016

Dovish Fed sends dollar tumbling • Fed revised down the “dot plot”, signaling only 2 rates hikes in 2016, down from 4. • Overall tone was dovish. USD weakened against its counterparts. BoE to stand pat • BoE is expected to stand pat. Focus on the minutes for any “Brexit” concerns. Norges Bank time to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 16/03/2016

Fed to tactically “delay” hikes • FOMC is expected to remain on hold. Focus will shift on the updated “dot plot”, new economic forecasts and press conference. • We expect the “dot plot” to be revised down, but not significantly. • This will communicate that the normalization path is still on track, just delayed. • […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 15/03/2016

Yen strengthens as BoJ holds fire • The BoJ stayed on hold, but reaffirmed its pledge to ease further if needed. • The Bank now expects 0% inflation for the time being. • Nikkei is down 1%, while the yen strengthened against its major peers. • JPY direction is likely to depend on any shifts […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 14/03/2016

PBoC says no excessive stimulus is needed • PBoC Governor said that unless there is a big economic shock, no excessive policy easing is needed to achieve the growth target. • CSI 300 is up 1.6%, despite a slowdown in retail sales and industrial output data for Jan. & Feb. • The improved risk sentiment […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 11/03/2016

ECB: No half measures this time • ECB delivered a stimulus package much more aggressive than markets expected. • All 3 interest rates were cut, QE increased by 20bln and will now include corporate bonds. Four TLTROs were launched as well. • EUR/USD plunged on these news but then reversed and rallied after Draghi said […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/03/2016

ECB meeting: What will they do? • The Bank is expected to cut the deposit rate by 0.1% and increase the QE program. • If the measures are more aggressive than expected this could be EUR-negative. • But market expectations are high, so if they under-deliver, EUR could surge (as in Dec.) • After the […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/03/2016

Two major central bank meetings: What to watch • BoC is likely to stand pat today • Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold and wait for the upcoming fiscal budget. • Inflation is in line with target and oil prices have stabilized, so a move is unlikely. • Reaction in CAD may […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/03/2016

China’s February exports collapse • China’s exports dropped by 25.4% yoy in February, while imports fell 13.8% yoy. • Softer global demand seen as the major drag on exports. • The weak trade data could ease some of the recent upward pressure on AUD&NZD. WTI rallies to USD 38 • Oil prices rallied on Monday, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/03/2016

China lowers growth target • China announced a 6.5%-7% growth range, down from a target of “around” 7% last year. • China will allow bigger deficits and may do further easing to halt the slowdown. US job growth surges but wages fall • NFP surged by 242k in February, but average hourly earnings fell 0.1% […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/03/2016

The final US jobs report before the Fed meeting • Nonfarm payrolls are exp. 190k vs prev. 151k, unemployment rate to remain unchanged, average hourly earnings to slow. • ADP report was better than exp. so we could see a positive surprise in NFP as well. • Initial reaction on USD is mainly due to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/03/2016

Asian stocks extend their gains • Most Asian stock markets added to their gains, as global concerns eased a bit. • Risk-on sentiment could remain elevated and demand for safe havens JPY, Gold may lessen. • Pro-risk currencies like AUD and NZD could see some renewed buying interest. Beige Book offers little comfort to Fed […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 02/03/2016

Aussie jumps on upbeat Q4 GDP data • Australian GDP grew by more than expected in Q4. • AUD/USD jumped 50 pips on the news. • Further easing by RBA is now unlikely in the near-term. AUD could continue higher. • Nikkei leads Asian equity rally • Asian stock markets are in the green today, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/03/2016

RBA on hold but maintains easing bias • The RBA remained on hold as expected, but reiterated further easing may be needed. • Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy. • We stay focused on the incoming data that will determine AUD direction (GDP Wed.). Saudi pledges to limit oil volatility • Saudi […]

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