• IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 27/04/2017

    ECB meeting: Not ready to change tune yet • ECB is widely expected to stand pat today. Focus will probably be on Draghi’s press conference. • He is likely to maintain a cautious tone, offering no hints regarding a reduction in stimulus yet. • May instead point to still-low inflation (political risks have still not […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 26/04/2017

    US President Trump to unveil an outline of his tax plan • Trump pledged massive tax cuts for corporations & individuals, and a one-time repatriation of corporate cash held abroad at a reduced rate. • If we get something along those lines today, it could prove positive for USD & US equities. • However, our […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 25/04/2017

    CAD slips after US imposes tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber • CAD tumbled against USD during the Asian morning Tuesday. • The Trump administration announced it will impose a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber as a response to “unfair” wood subsidies by Canada. • This comes ahead of talks to renegotiate NAFTA during the […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/04/2017

    French election: Macron and Le Pen advance to the second round • EUR opened with a positive gap against its major peers this week, as Macron and Le Pen advanced to the 2nd round of the French election. • Since Macron is leading Le Pen in practically every poll for the 2nd round, investors likely […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 21/04/2017

    French elections: Round 1 • On Sunday, French people are called to elect their President. According to the polls, no candidate gathers majority, so a second round is scheduled on the 7th of May. • Given the latest increase in support for Melenchon (EU-sceptic), a run-off between him and Le Pen seems to be the […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 20/04/2017

    • New Zealand’s inflation accelerates above RBNZ’s target midpoint • NZD strengthened after New Zealand’s CPI rate surged to +2.2% yoy in Q1 from +1.3% yoy in Q4. • Although this was due to temporary effects, a CPI measure excluding those effects showed inflation at 1.5% yoy, which is still within the Bank’s target range. […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 19/04/2017

    UK Prime Minister calls for snap election • Yesterday, UK PM May called an early election for June 8th . • The move aims at strengthening her hand going into the UK-EU divorce negotiations. • In order to hold an election, she must gather support of 2/3 in the parliament (Vote scheduled today) • The […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 18/04/2017

    RBA minutes reflect the meeting statement • Overnight, the RBA minutes were more or less in line with the meeting statement. • They noted that some labor market indicators have softened recently. • Also, the measures with regards to lending could ease financial stability risks. • This suggests that the Bank may be more flexible […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 14/04/2017

    • Turkey’s constitutional referendum: Too close to call? • On Sunday, Turkish citizens will head to the polls to vote on constitutional changes. • These changes would turn Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic, and could greatly expand the powers of President Erdogan. • Opinion polls suggest that “yes” is more likely, but […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 13/04/2017

    Trump vs US dollar: Round 3 • USD crashed yesterday, after US President Trump jawboned the currency once again. • He said the dollar is “getting too strong”. He added he would prefer the Fed to keep rates low. • This is a major turnaround in rhetoric (pre-election: the Fed is keeping rates too low!). […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 12/04/2017

    BoC meeting: Still dovish despite progress in economic data? • The Bank is expected to remain on hold. Focus will be on the statement & press conference. • The BoC has maintained a concerned tone in most of its recent communications. • Mainly because it wants to avoid triggering a surge in the Loonie by […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 11/04/2017

    Fed Chair Yellen: The economy is “pretty healthy” • Said the economy is “pretty healthy” and that it’s appropriate to raise rates as it continues to perform well. • But didn’t discuss the timing of the next hike, or the hot topic of a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet. • As a result, there […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 10/04/2017

    US NFP disappoints, but the rest of the report is solid • NFP for March came 98k, far below the consensus of 180k. USD weakened on the news. • However, the rest of the report was decent, with the unemployment rate dropping notably. • Thus, USD quickly reversed its losses to trade higher against its […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/04/2017

    Investors lock their gaze on the US jobs report • Nonfarm payrolls are expected 180k (12:30 GMT). The ADP report was very strong, so we could see a higher-than-anticipated NFP number too. • The unemployment rate and earnings growth are both expected unchanged. • Overall this looks like another strong report, that could increase speculation […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/04/2017

    FOMC minutes: Balance sheet reduction is on the horizon • The minutes showed that policymakers are considering how, when, and at what speed they should start reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. • Probably later this year, and with a clearly communicated plan to avoid financial instability. • USD reaction was volatile, rose initially but then […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/04/2017

    RBA remains on hold, but tilts somewhat dovish • The RBA remained on hold. The meeting statement had a somewhat dovish tone compared to the previous one. • The Bank highlighted that labor market indicators have softened recently. • AUD fell on the news, and may stay under selling interest for a while on this […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/04/2017

    RBA to remain on hold and maintain a neutral tone • The RBA will announce its decision during the Asian morning Tuesday. It’s expected to stand pat. • We share this view, and we expect the officials to maintain their overall neutral tone. • However, given the worse data lately, if there is a change […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 31/03/2017

    USD extends its recent gains • The US dollar rose yesterday. Likely reasons: Upbeat comments from Fed’s Dudley (voter) and an upward revision in GDP for Q4 2016. • Dudley said that the risks for both growth and inflation may be gradually shifting to the upside. • The market may have paid extra attention to […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 30/03/2017

    Reuters sources: ECB March signals were over-interpreted • EUR tumbled yesterday, after a report that the ECB only wanted to communicated reduced risks in March, not a step towards less stimulus. • Also, the Bank is cautious to change its language in April, as it may be over-interpreted again. • This shifts the near-term outlook […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/03/2017

    Sterling gets battered as PM May signs Brexit letter • GBP collapsed yest. PM May signed the official letter to trigger Article 50 and leave the EU. • Other possible reasons: Scottish Parliament voting for a 2nd independence referendum and cautious comments from BoE’s McCafferty (hawk). • Today, watch out for remarks from PM May […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 28/03/2017

    ECB policymakers provide more “hawkish” hints • EUR/USD rose further yest., amid “hawkish” remarks from ECB’s Lautenschlager and Weidman. • Both hinted the ECB may have to change policy, as soon as the data support something like that. • Even though these are far from clear signals that the Bank may actually change its policy, […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 27/03/2017

    USD slips as Trump fails to reform health care • Republicans decided to withdraw the bill on Friday (no vote), as they lacked the needed votes. • Even though Trump reassured investors he will now focus on tax reform, USD opened with a negative gap this week. • USD may stay on the back foot […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/03/2017

    US health care vote postponed to today; Trump raises the stakes • Republicans decided to postpone the vote for today, as they lacked the support needed. • But Trump stepped in. He said that if he loses the vote today, he is prepared to leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform. • […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/03/2017

    Trump’s first Congressional test: The American Healthcare Act • Today, Congress is expected to vote on repealing and replacing ‘Obamacare’ with ‘Trumpcare’. • Will be closely watched as a test of whether the new administration can deliver on its promises. • A rejection could raise questions on whether tax reform is likely to encounter such […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/03/2017

    RBNZ set to remain on hold, likely to retain a cautious tone • RBNZ is widely exp. to stand pat. Market action may come from the tone of the statement. • Latest statement was cautious, highlighted trade risks and the stronger NZD as being a problem. • We exp. this statement to be similar to […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 21/03/2017

    Macron seen as the winner of the first French debate • According to a snap poll towards the end of the debate, Macron was the most convincing. • Second was Mélenchon, with Fillon and Le Pen tied for third place. • EUR rose after the debate, as this may have diminished Le Pen’s chances to […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 20/03/2017

    Euro traders turn their gaze to French polls; Debates kick off today • EUR tumbled on Fri., after a new French election poll showed Le Pen recovering ground. • Today, we have the first televised debate between the top 5 candidates. • A strong showing by Le Pen could prove EUR-negative. • A more moderate […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 17/03/2017

    Euro surges again as ECB’s Nowotny hints at rate hikes • He didn’t say anything about a timeline, and his comments just referred to how rates could be raised once normalization begins. • Still, just his discussion of rate hikes was enough to trigger another surge in the euro. • Outlook for EUR/USD remains positive […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 16/03/2017

    FOMC delivers a hike, but offers no hawkish hints • FOMC hiked rates as expected. However, the signals about the rate path were not hawkish. • “Dot plot” was left unchanged, Chair Yellen was quite cautious in her press conference. • Key message: this hike doesn’t reflect increased optimism, and doesn’t imply faster future hikes. […]

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  • IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 15/03/2017

    FOMC decision: Signals on the rate path to drive the dollar • Besides the rate decision, this meeting will include updated forecasts and a press conf. by Yellen. • Widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps (90% prob.). Thus, market action will probably come from the updated signals on the rate path (“dot plot”). […]

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