Fuller’s, Marston’s and Mamp;B: asset plays or value traps?

It has been a strong couple of days on the stock market. In fact, Tuesday was the second best day ever in the c25 years that the FTSE has maintained its all-world index. It is worth remembering, though, that the biggest ever one day gain back in 2008 w…

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 26 Mar 2020) – RBG, RTN, INCE, QUIZ, LOOK

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday. As usual, it’s initially just a placeholder article, for readers to add your comments from 7am. The article should be finished by 1pm. Edit at 11:58 – let’s extend the timings, so I can get more …

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 26 Mar 2020) – RBG, RTN

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday. As usual, it’s initially just a placeholder article, for readers to add your comments from 7am. The article should be finished by 1pm. Edit at 11:58 – let’s extend the timings, so I can get more …

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 26 Mar 2020) – placeholder

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday. As usual, it’s initially just a placeholder article, for readers to add your comments from 7am. The article should be finished by 1pm. I needed a lie-in today, so am running a bit late. I had a f…

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Small Cap Value Report (Wed 25 Mar 2020) – HFD, WGB, DTG, VCP

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Weds. Estimated timings – probably a little shorter report than usual, I should be done by the 1pm official finish time.Update at 12:52 – today’s report is now finished. Thanks for the kind reader comments…

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Ex-U.S. Equity Factor Model Horse Race [PREMIUM]

Which equity factor model is best among non-U.S. global stock markets? In other words, what market/accounting variables are most important to investors screening non-U.S. stocks? In his February 2020 paper entitled “A Comparison of Global Factor …

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Small Cap Value Report (Wed 25 Mar 2020) – HFD, WGB

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Weds. Estimated timings – probably a little shorter report than usual, I should be done by the 1pm official finish time. . Coronavirus amp; me Firstly though, apologies for my absence of late. I started t…

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Small Cap Value Report (Tues 24 March 2020) – QTX, WYN, LTG, YOU, ESL

Morning, Well, I think we’ll all be talking about that address to the nation for some time. Historic stuff. Various monitors say footfall to retail, bar and restaurant sites have fallen by about 70% now. This will, of course, become closer to 100% over…

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Small Cap Value Report (Tues 24 March 2020) – QTX, WYN, LTG, YOU

Morning, Well, I think we’ll all be talking about that address to the nation for some time. Historic stuff. Various monitors say footfall to retail, bar and restaurant sites have fallen by about 70% now. This will, of course, become closer to 100% over…

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SIF Folio: Sirius Real Estate could be cheap after German lockdown

The carnage is continuing in the markets, but I’m starting to wonder if the FTSE 100 is building a base at around 5,000. On a monthly chart, the last time the index was this oversold was in 2009. Prior to that it was 2002. We will see. In any case, I p…

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Small Cap Value Report (Tues 24 March 2020) – QTX, WYN, LTG

Morning, Well, I think we’ll all be talking about that address to the nation for some time. Historic stuff. Various monitors say footfall to retail, bar and restaurant sites have fallen by about 70% now. This will, of course, become closer to 100% over…

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Middle-of-the-Night Stock Market Gains [PREMIUM]

Has 24-hour trading of equity index futures created a reliable pattern in hour-by-hour returns? In their February 2020 preliminary paper entitled “The Overnight Drift”, Nina Boyarchenko, Lars Larsen and Paul Whelan study round-the-clock U.S…

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Bear market survival guide, using a simple metric

We are in unchartered territory. The Government, as of yesterday, has introduced three radical new measures:
Leaving the home is no longer permitted, except for specified reasons such as shopping for basic necessities.The closure of all “non-essential”…

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Small Cap Value Report (Tues 24 March 2020) – placeholder

Morning, Well, I think we’ll all be talking about that address to the nation for some time. Historic stuff. Various monitors say footfall to retail, bar and restaurant sites have fallen by about 70% now. This will, of course, become closer to 100% over…

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The ‘Corona Crash’: A Historical Perspective

History repeats itself. Specific details change as we step through time, but certain patterns recur again and again. This is particularly true in the stock market. Bear markets have followed bull markets since the 17th century, when Dutch investors wer…

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Small Cap Value Report (Mon 23 March) – placeholder

Morning!Boris Johnson announced the forced closure of pubs, bars and restaurants on Friday evening.Calls are growing for some form of ‘lockdown’ (e.g. as seen in Italy) to slow down the spread of the virus further.The FTSE is currently (7am) set to ope…

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Coronavirus-19 Crash Questions [PREMIUM]

Subscribers are posing questions about coronavirus-19 as a driver of current market conditions that are difficult to address with evidence-based analyses. Here are some questions and thoughts: Can infection trajectories of recent novel diseases such as…

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Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/16/20 – 3/20/20 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/16/20 through 3/20/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive…

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Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/16/20 – 3/20/20 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/16/20 through 3/20/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive…

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Are Strong or Weak Daily Closes Predictive? [PREMIUM]

When the stock market close is strong (weak) relative to its daily range, does it indicate pent-up buying (selling) demand? Should one trade with or against this relative close? To investigate, we relate position of the daily close for the S&P 500 …

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The Trader – searching for cheap stocks that could bounce sharply

This week has been interesting to say the least. Fortunes have been made and fortunes have been lost as stock market participants continue to pit their wits against each other. In normal times, consensus agreement is relatively easy to reach, and volat…

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Small Cap Value Report (Fri 20 Mar 2020) – ZIRP and no QE, FUTR

Morning folks,
Some updates this Friday:
Future (LON:FUTR)CMC Markets (LON:CMCX)Foxtons (LON:FOXT)SCS (LON:SCS)Central Banks to the rescue – Zero Interest Rate Policies (but no QE)Perhaps I shouldn’t complain, since this news may have helped to era…

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Small Cap Value Report (Fri 20 Mar 2020) – ZIRP and no QE, FUTR, CMCX

Morning folks,
Some updates this Friday:
Future (LON:FUTR)CMC Markets (LON:CMCX)Foxtons (LON:FOXT)SCS (LON:SCS)Central Banks to the rescue – Zero Interest Rate Policies (but no QE)
Perhaps I shouldn’t complain, since this news may have helped to er…

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