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How Analyzing Forex with Elliott Wave Can Help You Catch Both Rallies and Declines


On November 1, the EUR/USD -- the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex pair -- was trading the $1.38 range, near the level it is today.

But if you look at what the EUR/USD did between November 1 and 9, you'll see a huge 400-point (or pip, in forex lingo) rally into the November 4 top -- and an equally huge decline back to the levels we see today.

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How Analyzing Forex with Elliott Wave Can Help You Catch Both Rallies and Declines
FreeWeek of Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service is here thru Nov. 18
November 12, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

About The Publisher

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How Analyzing Forex with Elliott Wave Can Help You Catch Both Rallies and Declines. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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That's an 800-pip "round trip" in just six trading days -- a huge move which obviously caught a lot of the U.S. dollar bears and bulls by surprise. Could you have seen it coming?

If you know how to analyze currencies with Elliott wave, the answer is probably "yes." Wave analysis helps you identify patterns in market charts and tells you how those patterns -- ideally -- should develop. In other words, Elliott allows you to narrow down multiple possibilities to a handful of probabilities.

A probability is never a certainty. But it's better than a shot in the dark, as this example demonstrates.

On November 1, Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service posted the following end-of-day forecast. (Some Elliott wave labels removed for this article): 

Currency Specialty Service

[Higher, into a top] The euro is poised to thrust above 1.4160. The question is if the thrust takes place before the FOMC announcement and ends afterward, or starts in response to the announcement. Before or after, the euro should hit new highs.

What gave Currency Specialty Service the confidence to make that forecast? It was the "contracting triangle" pattern you see in the chart above. They often appear in 4th waves, right before the market's final push in wave 5. The EUR fulfilled the forecast with a 400-pip rally into the November 4 top. The following day, our Currency Specialty Service wrote:

The euro is reversing course after a thrust from a triangle. The decline from 1.4283 might not be in five waves, but it has the characteristics of an impulsive wave. A correction of the rally from August should reach the 1.3636-1.3700 area, the 38.2% retracement of the advance... 

...which brings us to the price levels where we find the EUR/USD today. And if you're curious to know what Currency Specialty Service has to say now, you have a great opportunity: 

FreeWeek is live through noon EST on Thursday, November 18! You can access all the intraday, daily, weekly and monthly forecasts from EWI's Currency Specialty Service right now through noon Eastern time Thursday, Nov. 18. This service is valued at $494/month, but you can get it free! Click here to access Currency Specialty Service FreeWeek.

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11/02/2010 - Bob Prechter's "Conquer The Crash": Eight C

When EWI President Robert Prechter sat down to write the first edition of "Conquer The Crash" in 2002, the idea that the United States would ent [ more ]

11/02/2010 - Bob Prechter's "Conquer The Crash": Eight Chapters For Free

11/02/2010 - Robert Prechter on Herding and Markets' "Ir

The following is an excerpt from a classic issue of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. For a limited time, you can [ more ]

11/02/2010 - Robert Prechter on Herding and Markets' "Irony and Paradox"

10/02/2010 - U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Cont

In case you were hiding out Tiger Woods' style far away from the mainstream media during the past month, let me be the first to say: January saw an abrupt end to t [ more ]

10/02/2010 - U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Control?

05/02/2010 - EUR/USD: What Moves You?

Today, the EUR/USD stands well below its November peak of $1.51. Find out what Elliott wave patterns are suggesting for the trend ahead now -- FREE. [ more ]

05/02/2010 - EUR/USD: What Moves You?

27/01/2010 - Bernanke's Burn Notice -- Why Now?

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27/01/2010 - Bernanke's Burn Notice -- Why Now?

New Year: New Economic Boom? Why 2010 Should Be One to R

Elliott Wave International's latest free report puts 2010 into perspective like no other. The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010 [ more ]

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11/01/2010 - Why You Should Care About DJIA Priced in Go

The following article is provided courtesy of Elliott Wave International (EWI). For more insights that challenge conventional financial wisdom, download [ more ]

11/01/2010 - Why You Should Care About DJIA Priced in Gold

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The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. For more information from Robert Prechter on bank safety, download [ more ]

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The following article is provided courtesy of Elliott Wave International (EWI). For more insights that challenge conventional financial wisdom, download EWI& [ more ]

13/11/2009 - If Stocks Tank, Shouldn't Gold Soar?

02/09/2009 - How IRAs Can Tie Investors Hands and What T

Editor's Note: The following article discusses Robert Prechter's view of investment vehicles and government-regulated plans. For more analysis from Robert [ more ]

02/09/2009 - How IRAs Can Tie Investors Hands and What To Do About It

04/09/2009 - Prechter Stands Alone Again... He's Done th

So Bob Prechter is bearish again. That may be no surprise to some, but recall that Prechter was about the only bull on February 23 of this year when he [ more ]

04/09/2009 - Prechter Stands Alone Again... He's Done the Math

29/10/2009 - Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent F

The following article includes analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75- [ more ]

29/10/2009 - Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?

22/10/2009 - Earnings: Is That REALLY What's Driving The

It's corporate earnings season again, and everywhere you turn, analysts talk about the influence of earnings on the broad stock market:  [ more ]

22/10/2009 - Earnings: Is That REALLY What's Driving The DJIA Higher?

Gold: What's REALLY Behind the Record Rise, Bull or Bubb

When prices in a financial market go from Sea Level to Outer Space in a relatively brief time, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with the lett [ more ]

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14/10/09 - How to Prepare for the Coming Crash and Prese

Bob Prechter first released Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression during a stock-market high in 2002, and it q [ more ]

14/10/09 - How to Prepare for the Coming Crash and Preserve Your Wealth

09/10/2009 - Death of the Dollar, Again: Before You Mour

The following article is based on analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the [ more ]

09/10/2009 - Death of the Dollar, Again: Before You Mourn, See This Chart

Q&A With Robert Prechter: Why Technical Analysis Beats O

As the major stock markets turned down in late 2007 and then started to rally in March 2009, many people who believed in fundamental analysis have begun [ more ]

Q&A With Robert Prechter: Why Technical Analysis Beats Out Fundamental Analysis

08/09/2009 - How A Bear Can Be Bullish And Still Be Righ

In recent months, Elliott Wave International President [ more ]

08/09/2009 - How A Bear Can Be Bullish And Still Be Right

15/09/2009 - Prechters Tips on Trading Successfully

Take it from the person who won the United States Trading Championship with profits of more than 440% in 1984 – there are five things that every successful tra [ more ]

15/09/2009 - Prechters Tips on Trading Successfully

17/09/2009 - Germany's DAX: FREE Insight Into Europe's L

It's one of the first rules in the book of mainstream economic wisdom: a country's economy is the thermometer which "reads" its stock market's temperature. If fi [ more ]

17/09/2009 - Germany's DAX: FREE Insight Into Europe's Leading Economy

24/09/2009 - How a Kid With a Ruler Can Make a Million

The following article is adapted from a brand-new 50-page ebook from Elliott Wave International. [ more ]

24/09/2009 - How a Kid With a Ruler Can Make a Million

3 Questions The Government Doesn’t Want You To Ask Abo

Bob Prechter, President of Elliott Wave International (EWI), is no stranger to challenging the status quo. His New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash, [ more ]

3 Questions The Government Doesn’t Want You To Ask About the Financial Crisis

Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recession

Each year, the NCAA college basketball tournament winnows its starting field of 64 teams to the Final Four teams who play for a chance to become the national champio [ more ]

Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recessions?

How To Recognize a Financial Mania When You're Smack Dab

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How To Recognize a Financial Mania When You're Smack Dab in the Middle of One

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08/09/2011 - Bull Market In Gold Over With Double Top?

A few weeks ago I penned a public article and private forecast for my subscribers calling for a major correction in Gold being due. 72 hours after my forecast, Gold [ more ]

08/09/2011 - Bull Market In Gold Over With Double Top?

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Thursday Sept

By Jovi Overo 08 Sep 2011 An attitude of dovishness has gained traction among central banks in Europe this week and investors are worried that a continuation of low ra [ more ]

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Thursday September 8 2011

01/09/2011 - Those Steely-Eyes of J.P. Morgan: Could The

If "legendary Wall Street figure" ever described anyone, it was turn-of-the-last-century financier J.P. Morgan. You can throw in "bigger than life&quo [ more ]

01/09/2011 - Those Steely-Eyes of J.P. Morgan: Could They Help Us Today?

27/08/2011 - Behind Closed Doors at the Fed: Ten Years o

During the past few years, The Federal Reserve has engaged in a "deliberate inflating policy." This policy [ more ]

27/08/2011 - Behind Closed Doors at the Fed: Ten Years of Research into America's Central Bank

29/08/2011 - What Could Lie Ahead for the S&P 500 &

Now that Mr. Bernanke’s speech is old news, what was the financial media thinking exactly? A significant number of financial writers have been anticipating discuss [ more ]

29/08/2011 - What Could Lie Ahead for the S&P 500 & Gold

22/08/2011 - Gold - Is It the Only Safe Haven Investment

With the economy so sour right now, investors seem to be selling out of the market and looking for other areas which have a safe haven status right now. Gold has been a [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Gold - Is It the Only Safe Haven Investment Left

22/08/2011 - Gold & Stocks Are About To Move in Opposite

The past few weeks traders and investors have been completely spooked from the surge of negative news and collapsing stock prices. This fear can be seen by looking at t [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Gold & Stocks Are About To Move in Opposite Directions Get Ready!

22/08/2011 - Successful Investing Starts With Research

Since 2008, the world has faced serious problems. The credit crisis, debt crisis and the U.S. economy right now are all playing havoc with the livelihoods if of America [ more ]

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08/09/2011 - Bull Market In Gold Over With Double Top?

A few weeks ago I penned a public article and private forecast for my subscribers calling for a major correction in Gold being due. 72 hours after my forecast, Gold [ more ]

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01/09/2011 - Those Steely-Eyes of J.P. Morgan: Could The

If "legendary Wall Street figure" ever described anyone, it was turn-of-the-last-century financier J.P. Morgan. You can throw in "bigger than life&quo [ more ]

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With the economy so sour right now, investors seem to be selling out of the market and looking for other areas which have a safe haven status right now. Gold has been a [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Gold - Is It the Only Safe Haven Investment Left

22/08/2011 - Gold & Stocks Are About To Move in Opposite

The past few weeks traders and investors have been completely spooked from the surge of negative news and collapsing stock prices. This fear can be seen by looking at t [ more ]

22/08/2011 - Gold & Stocks Are About To Move in Opposite Directions Get Ready!

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