Trump’s first Congressional test: The American Healthcare Act
• Today, Congress is expected to vote on repealing and replacing ‘Obamacare’ with ‘Trumpcare’.
• Will be closely watched as a test of whether the new administration can deliver on its promises.
• A rejection could raise questions on whether tax reform is likely to encounter such problems too.
• That could prove negative for USD & equities. May prove positive for safe havens (JPY, gold).
• On the other hand, if Congress passes the bill, we may see the opposite market reactions.

RBNZ remains on hold, keeps the door open for further easing
• RBNZ stood pat, as was expected. Noted that further depreciation in NZD is needed.
• But sounded more optimistic with regards to inflation. The reaction in NZD was relatively limited.
• Kept the door open for further easing, mostly due to global risks (trade protectionism?).
• NZD outlook is cautiously negative (RBNZ is very vocal about a weaker NZD, mixed data).

As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• UK: UK retail sales for Feb. Both headline and core rates are exp. to have risen. GBP-positive.
• US: New home sales for Feb. and initial jobless claims for the week ended Mar. 17th.
• Speakers: Besides any potential comments from US lawmakers, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak. Unlikely to cause a major market reaction (we already heard from her last week).

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