IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/03/2017
March 22, 2017 10:01 amVideo
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RBNZ set to remain on hold, likely to retain a cautious tone
• RBNZ is widely exp. to stand pat. Market action may come from the tone of the statement.
• Latest statement was cautious, highlighted trade risks and the stronger NZD as being a problem.
• We exp. this statement to be similar to the previous one, amid slowing GDP growth and elevated protectionism risks (G20).
• Such a tone could prove negative for the Kiwi.
UK inflation accelerates, but will the BoE scale back stimulus?
• Both the headline and the core CPI rates for Feb. rose by more than expected.
• GBP surged, as this may have fueled speculation regarding a reduction in BoE stimulus.
• We think that this is likely to lead to more hawkish dissents among the BoE (a 7-2 vote perhaps?).
• But not an actual rate hike, at least not until the Brexit negotiating landscape becomes clearer.
Safe havens rally as risk aversion prevails
• JPY and gold rallied yesterday, while riskier assets (stocks, AUD, NZD) underperformed.
• Fundamental reason not clear. May have to do with Trump’s tax plan being delayed.
• He has to repeal Obamacare before he lays out a detailed tax plan. That repeal could be delayed.
• As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• Eurozone: Current account balance for Jan. but usually not a major market mover.
• Speakers: ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlager.
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