IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/02/2017
February 22, 2017 10:37 am
FOMC February minutes: More optimistic signals? • Yellen was quite upbeat in her testimonies last week. Minutes may reflect a similar tone. • If so, the probability for a near-term rate hike could rise (March?), which may bring USD under renewed buying interest. • But we stick to our view that the Fed is unlikely to rush into a March hike. Our base-case scenario remains June. • Need clarity around fiscal policy, accelerating wage growth & an uptick in the core PCE price index rate before we reconsider this.
RBA Governor confirms the bar for further easing is high • Gov. Lowe said overnight that he is concerned about high household debt. • Cutting rates could encourage more borrowing and thereby heighten financial stability risks. • Confirms our view RBA is likely to remain on hold for a while. AUD may remain supported.
As for the rest of today’s highlights: • Germany: Ifo survey for February. Both indices exp. to tick down. EUR-negative. • UK: 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP is exp. unchanged. If there is any revision, it may be to the upside. If so, GBP-positive. • US: Existing home sales for Jan. but focus will be on the FOMC minutes.
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FOMC February minutes: More optimistic signals?
• Yellen was quite upbeat in her testimonies last week. Minutes may reflect a similar tone.
• If so, the probability for a near-term rate hike could rise (March?), which may bring USD under renewed buying interest.
• But we stick to our view that the Fed is unlikely to rush into a March hike. Our base-case scenario remains June.
• Need clarity around fiscal policy, accelerating wage growth & an uptick in the core PCE price index rate before we reconsider this.
RBA Governor confirms the bar for further easing is high
• Gov. Lowe said overnight that he is concerned about high household debt.
• Cutting rates could encourage more borrowing and thereby heighten financial stability risks.
• Confirms our view RBA is likely to remain on hold for a while. AUD may remain supported.
As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• Germany: Ifo survey for February. Both indices exp. to tick down. EUR-negative.
• UK: 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP is exp. unchanged. If there is any revision, it may be to the upside. If so, GBP-positive.
• US: Existing home sales for Jan. but focus will be on the FOMC minutes.
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com
To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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