IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 21/04/2017
April 21, 2017 9:02 amVideo
Latest News
- Technical Analysis – GBPUSD remains directionless below 50-day SMA August 18, 2023
- AUD/USD dynamics scenarios on August 18, 2023 August 18, 2023
- Eurozone PMIs important for the euro next week – Preview August 18, 2023
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis for August 18 August 18, 2023
- GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on August 18th (analysis of morning deals). The pound fell after weak retail sales August 18, 2023
- Video market update for August 18, 2023 August 18, 2023
- EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on August 18th (analysis of morning deals). The euro remains under pressure August 18, 2023
- EUR/USD. August 18th. Bears maintain a downward trend August 18, 2023
- Bitcoin collapses to fresh 2-month low pressured by rising yields – Crypto News August 18, 2023
- Overview of US premarket trade on August 18, 2023. Stock indices continue to extend their decline August 18, 2023
- Technical Analysis – USDCHF upleg extends to 50-SMA August 18, 2023
- GBP/USD. August 18th. Retail sales in the UK fell twice as much as expected August 18, 2023
- Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on August 18 (US session) August 18, 2023
- Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on August 18 (US session) August 18, 2023
- Technical Analysis – AUDJPY is in retreat, but this correction could gain further strength August 18, 2023
- Week Ahead – All eyes on the Jackson Hole symposium August 18, 2023
- Market Comment – Global stock rout deepens amid China gloom, jump in yields August 18, 2023
- BTC update for August 18,.2023 – First objectives has been reached, potential for the further drop August 18, 2023
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading plan for beginner traders on August 18, 2023 August 18, 2023
- Analysis of Gold for August 18, 2023 – Potential for the further downside movement August 18, 2023
French elections: Round 1
• On Sunday, French people are called to elect their President. According to the polls, no candidate gathers majority, so a second round is scheduled on the 7th of May.
• Given the latest increase in support for Melenchon (EU-sceptic), a run-off between him and Le Pen seems to be the biggest risk scenario. EUR could sink. General risk-off market response.
• The other side of the coin: Macron-Fillon. EUR could strengthen. General risk-on as the risk for any “Frexit” referendum is eliminated.
• Polls: Most likely outcome: Macron-Le Pen. EUR to rebound, some risk appetite. Macron is seen as winning the second round. (Generally, Macron is seen as winning any of the others in the run-off).
• In the unlikely scenario of Macron being kicked out, the only combination that could be seen as somewhat EUR-positive is Fillon- Le Pen (Fillon favorite). In a Fillon-Melenchon comb. (Mel. favorite).
• Of course, much will depend on who comes first in these combs. and by what margin.
• Best proxy EUR/JPY. Could fall sharply in risk off. Could rebound more than others in risk appetite.
Today:
• Eurozone: Prelim. PMIs for April (08:00 GMT).
• UK: Retail sales for March (08:30 GMT). Exp. to have declined, which is GBP negative.
• Canada: CPI for March (12:30 GMT). Core rate may have ticked up. CAD positive.
• US: Prelim. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for April (13:45 GMT). Prob. not market movers.
• Speakers: ECB President Draghi and Board member Benoit Coeure speak at the IMF/World Bank conference in Washington.
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