House of Lords set to debate Article 50 bill
• Expected to pass the bill without any amendments. Thus, Brexit is still set to be triggered in Mar.
• Still headed for a “hard Brexit” (UK wants control of immigration, EU won’t give full access to single market in that case).
• Investors may begin to focus more on this as we approach the triggering (and after negot. begin).
• Rebounds in GBP may remain limited short-term. Fav. proxy for further GBP softness: GBP/JPY.

RBA February meeting minutes in focus
• Bank was surprisingly optimistic in this meeting. Overlooked soft data as being transitory.
• If the minutes confirm the RBA is as confident as the statement suggests, AUD may gain.
• Another key point will be their view on the strength of AUD (verbal intervention in the future?).

As for the rest of the week:
• Tue: RBA minutes during the Asian morning. From Eurozone, we get prel. manuf. & services PMIs for Jan.
• Wed: FOMC minutes of Feb. gathering. We may see optimistic signals regarding a near-term hike. If so, USD-positive. Also, 2nd estimate of UK GDP for Q4 and Germany’s Ifo survey for Feb.
• Frid: Canada’s CPI data for Jan. We exp. both the headline and the core to have risen.

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